Test previews / Richard O’Hagan / 21 March 2012 /

Vernon Philander is on course to become the fastest bowler to 50 wickets in Test history and the way he'sbeen playing, that looks to be on the cards. As far as the match itself goes, New Zealand look a tad over-priced, says Richard O'Hagan.

New Zealand

New Zealand go into the final Test of their summer needing a win in order to tie the series. It has been a bittersweet season for them, with the outstanding performances against Australia at the start of it now in danger of being forgotten amid their failures at home against South Africa.

Meeting the second best side in the world was always going to be a tough test for them and something of a home baptism of fire for new captain Ross Taylor. He and New Zealand have not been helped by injuries to key players - including Taylor himself, who missed most of the one day and T20 series with a calf injury. But another problem is that too many key players have underperformed, their batsmen have not made enough runs and only veteran seamer Chris Martin and new wicketkeeper Kruger van Wyk have really performed consistently at Test standard.

All of which has forced the New Zealanders to change the balance of their side, leaving out a bowler and going in with six batsmen. With opener Rob Nicol also dropped after a torrid two Tests it represents something of a gamble. In his place returns Daniel Flynn, once touted as the natural replacement for Stephen Fleming. He played fifteen matches in a short space of time, including this encounter with James Anderson, but hasn't represented his country since 2009. To increase the pressure on him even further, he will be asked to open the batting despite having played almost all of his cricket in the middle order.

Also returning to the side will be Australian-born Dean Brownlie, who was such a success against the country of his birth, but who has missed the whole series so far with injury. He and Kane Williamson will be expected to share the duties of the fifth bowler, although the New Zealanders will hope that they are not needed.

South Africa

The story of the series so far has been the incredible form of Proteas' opening bowler Vernon Philander. In just six Tests he has now taken 45 wickets at the remarkable average of just over 13. Five more in this game would mean that he equals the record for the fastest to 50 wickets. Tellingly, the other three men who share the record all played before the year 1900.

There's nothing that special about Philander's technique, he has just bowled a decent line and length and allows the ball to do the work. He has a habit of getting the ball to duck in to the right hander, but he lacks the pure pace of his opening partner Dale Steyn or the hostility of Morne Morkel. It used to be said of Glenn McGrath that one of the reasons he took so many wickets was that, in being slower than the other Australian pacemen, he gave you just a little bit too much time to think and caught batsmen in more than one mind about how to play him, and the same seems to be true of Philander. With the conditions in Wellington likely to assist movement both off the pitch and in the air you can expect him to reach that 50 wicket milestone, maybe even in the first innings.

Venue and Conditions

Things don't change much at the Basin Reserve. It will be slightly chilly and more than a little windy. The groundsman believes that the pitch should be an even contest between bat and ball. Recently, first innings scores have tended to be around the 350 mark and only five of the last 17 Tests there have ended in draws. With the weather set fair for the five days of the game it will be a surprise if there is not a result.

Match Odds

Pulling the series back to 1-1 is going to be tricky for New Zealand, but the balance of the side now looks much better and their odds of [7.8] [https://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=100464921&ex=2&origin=MRL&rfr=3013] appear a little generous. The South Africans are available at [1.93] with the draw at [2.76].

Top New Zealand Batsman

Martin Guptill has long been the most reliable performer among the New Zealand top order. Lacking the flair of the likes of Taylor and Williamson, or the brutal aggression of a Brendon McCullum, he is the often the batsman who accumulates runs at one end and allows the others to play around him. Arguably the best two toed batsman ever (he lost the other three in a fork lift truck accident) expect him to improve upon his record at this venue and lead his country's batting at odds of around [5.0].

Top South Africa Batsman

None of the South African batsmen have really hit top form in this series, nor have they really needed to. The surest bet is AB de Villiers, who compiled a hard fought 83 in the last game and never seems to be bothered by anything. He should also be available at odds of [5.0].

Best Bet: AB de Villiers to be top South African batsman at odds of around [5.0]

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