New Zealand v India 3rd Test Betting: Fitness of Dhoni could be the difference

Test previews / Andrew Hughes / 02 April 2009 / 1 Comments

India did well to salvage a draw in the last Test but with completely different conditions at Wellington, this will represent a completely different challenge to MS Dhoni's men. And it is the availability or not of the captain that could make all the difference, says Andrew Hughes.

India escaped in Napier, thanks to some obdurate and inspired resistance from Gautam Gambhir, but their greatest test is yet to come. Given the way that Zaheer Khan and RP Singh exploited English conditions in 2007, there shouldn't really be any doubt about this team's ability to prosper outside the dustbowls of the subcontinent. Ishant Sharma now compliments Zaheer and with Munaf Patel as a useful third seamer, they have the weapons to go to war on any surface in the world.

Yet still the doubts linger amongst fans, pundits and perhaps also in the minds of one or two of the older Indian pros who bear the mental scars of overseas tours past; of green-tinged pitches, slanting rain and batting collapses. They hold a 1-0 lead on their current New Zealand tour, but critics will point out that the first two Tests were played out under sunny skies on identikit modern pitches as slow, predictable and dull as anything you might find in Chennai or Hyderabad.

So the Basin Reserve, Wellington is their chance to make a definitive statement. It is, in addition to being the windiest Test venue in the world, a fast-medium bowlers paradise. Providing they can cope with the gusts and gales that batter the uncovered ground from all directions, the seam and swing merchants should do good business there. India have lost each of the last four Tests they've played in Wellington and only Tendulkar has a decent record at the venue. At [4.7] he looks a safe pair of hands for top Indian first innings run scorer.

Crucial to India's chances will be the availability of captain Mahendra Singh Dhoni. Given that the back spasm he sustained shortly before the Second Test was said to be a minor injury, it is a slight concern to Indian fans that he still has not been definitely cleared to play at Wellington, with the fitness team continuing to monitor him over the next twenty-four hours ahead of Friday's game.

As wicketkeeper-captain, his loss would be a double blow, though it is as a captain that he was most missed in Napier. Virender Sehwag did his best, at short notice, but what was missing from the Indian fielding performance was the kind of confidence and intensity that Dhoni has instilled in his team.

His calm assurance is his greatest asset as a captain; under his leadership, India never appear to be flustered, never look like losing their focus. At Napier, vital catches went down, fielding errors crept in and the team appeared to be drifting as Jesse Ryder and Ross Taylor piled on the first innings runs. The pressure seemed to affect Sehwag too; his natural risk-taking with the bat turning to recklessness in his anxiety to set an example at the top of the order.

It is clear that Dhoni's injury caught the selectors on the hop. So dominant has he been as captain, that it appears little thought has been given to his eventual or short-term replacement. Perhaps Tendulkar or Dravid might be prevailed upon to fill in as Sehwag did, before they retire. After that, there is Gambhir or Yuvraj Singh, but neither have shown much leadership potential thus far. And I can't quite imagine the BCCI entrusting the volatile Harbhajan with the captaincy. At this stage, Dhoni's successor doesn't stand out. It is quite likely that it will turn out to be one of the youngsters waiting in the wings, perhaps Rohit Sharma or Suresh Raina.

Another area of slight concern for India was in the wicket-keeping department. Dinesh Karthik did not distinguish himself with the gloves at Napier and the other likely contender, Parthiv Patel, has had several opportunities without impressing. With the ball likely to be swinging about at the Basin Reserve, a safe pair of hands behind the stumps is essential and though Dhoni may not please the purists, he is a steady presence. His absence would be a significant blow to the tourists in what is likely to be their trickiest assignment yet and the [5.4] about a New Zealand win looks tempting. India are available at [2.22] with the draw on offer at [2.68]

Comments (1)

1. Shine | 02 April 2009

   hmmmm..hope he could play this morning!!!