Murali has England in a spin and you can bet he's not done just yet

Test previews / Editor / 03 December 2007 / 1 Comments

All you need to know about what has happened in the First Test so far as Murali becomes a world record breaker

The headlines from day three of the first Test between England and Sri Lanka are dominated by the performances of one man, Muttiah Muralitharan. The phenomenal off spinner surpassed Shane Warne's world record of 708 Test victims when he dislodged Paul Collingwood's stumps to spark scenes of great jubilation on his home ground.

Murali also had Matthew Hoggard stumped to end the innings with 710 Test wickets in total and there can be little doubt that this tally will be added to during England's second innings. In all likelihood this Test will be decided on England's ability to deal with the Sri Lankan talisman on a deteriorating pitch in Kandy with Betfair punters none too confident of success for Michael Vaughan's men who trade at 6.8. Sri Lanka (2.18) ended day three on 167 for 2, a lead of 74.

The third day began with England managing to scramble up to a total of 281 after some rather indifferent batting by the middle order on Sunday left them starting the day on 186 for 6. Much was owed to the partnership of 57 between Collingwood (45) and Ryan Sidebottom (31) which proved that application is the key to grinding out a score on this pitch.

That gave England a first-innings lead of 93 but this was wiped out by a record opening partnership of 113 between Sanath Jayasuriya (out for 78 in what proved to be his final innings as he announced his retirement from the Test arena at the close of play) and Michael Vandort. As a result, Sri Lanka's price for a series victory is 1.55 - a figure which only drifted out to 2.34 despite their first-innings slump when they were reduced to 42 for 5 on the first morning as Matthew Hoggard claimed 4 for 29.

That Sri Lanka have any chance of achieving a result in this game is thanks in large to the first-innings partnership of 106 (in a total of just 188) between Kumar Sangakarra and wicket-keeping successor Prasanna Jayawardene. How England would love to have the problem of having two accomplished glove men both amongst the runs.

Sangakarra has had an excellent year in Test cricket which has included two double hundreds (albeit against Bangladesh) and a sublime 192 against Australia in Hobart. His first innings knock of 92 is the top score in the match to date, and he is heavily fancied (1.47) to turn his undefeated 30 in the second innings into a half century. Not surprisingly, he also tops the market to finish the series as the top Sri Lankan batsman, with his last trade at a generous 3.

The only other player to register a half century for either side in the first innings was Ian Bell who looked at his masterly best despite coming to the crease during the first over of England's reply. He compiled a stylish 83 before becoming one of Murali's six victims. Bell is the 2.52 favourite to end the series as England's highest-scoring batsman, but Kevin Pietersen (3.2) and Collingwood (3.75) are also fancied.

Should England lose this match, Vaughan can take heart from England's performance in 2001 when they overcame defeat in the first Test to go on and secure a 2-1 victory. A repeat scoreline is available at 4.8.

In that series, Nasser Hussain's side chased down 160 to claim a three-wicket victory in Kandy after claiming a 90-run lead on first innings. However Murali had a quiet game by his standards, taking just five wickets, although it must be remembered that his famed Doosra, his most potent delivery, was very much a work in progress at that time.

England visited again in 2003 when the game was drawn, thanks largely to a fine 105 by Vaughan in England's second innings, chasing an unlikely 368. The Yorkshireman was then in his favoured opening berth, which he has now returned to following Andrew Strauss's exclusion and he looked in decent touch during the first innings here. Watch out for an England Second Innings 100 market when Vaughan and Alistair Cook begin the run chase.

The pitch at Kandy is looking dusty with a number of balls have already gone through the surface and some vicious spin extracted by both Murali and Monty Panesar. Surprisingly though, the side chasing at the Asgiriya Stadium have not fared too badly. Only 38% of the sides batting first after winning the toss have gone on to claim victory, while it stands at just shy of 31% for the side batting second.

One other factor to consider is the weather. An entire session was lost to incessant rain on Sunday and thunderstorms are predicted for the area tomorrow, meaning the 3.85 available for the draw could be attractive. A draw would also reward backers of Day 5 Evening in the Test Match End market so keep an eye out there for value.

Comments (1)

1. Uncle J Rod | 04 December 2007

   What are the odds on Kumar not going out under 50 for the entire series.