India v England 2nd Test: Who will react best to India's stunning 1st Test victory?

Test previews / Ed Hawkins / 17 December 2008 / Leave a Comment

Few could begrudge the way Tendulkar and Sehwag gave the people of Mumbai something to cheer about after the atrocities of the last month but Friday presents a new "Test" for both teams. Ed Hawkins crunches the stats to try to find who will fare best.

In the aftermath of India's invigorating victory in the first Test in Chennai, three questions need answering as we look forward to the match in Mohali, which starts early on Friday. How did they do it? How will they react to it? How will England recover from it?

The first is easier to answer than the other two. India, emboldened by timid England tactics on the fourth afternoon, suddenly got the whiff of fear emanating from the visiting dressing room; a waft which twitched Australian nostrils in Adelaide in 2006 and South African ones at Edgbaston only last summer.

England have a habit of losing games they should not, although in the case of Chennai they can at least placate themselves that in suffering the indignity of conceding the fourth highest target in Test history, Virender Sehwag and Sachin Tendulkar wielded the willow for a higher cause: the people of Mumbai.

It was an emotional day for the whole country and the players celebrated accordingly. But now it is back to business and the layman psychologist could argue that both teams will be adversely affected by such a thriller.

India could suffer from 'After the Lord Mayor's Show' syndrome while England, psychologically battered, will already be thinking about recuperation, sitting by the tree opening Christmas presents with the family. Ahh, soothing.

There is some help to working out what is going on in the minds of the players as we try to find the value among the [2.28] about India, [9.00] about England and the [2.18] available on the draw.

By looking at the records following a win and defeat for India and England respectively, it is possible to judge who is made of stronger stuff.

Surprisingly, India do not react well to a triumph. Their tally of just one win in their last 10 Tests at home following a victory suggests the party has carried on a little too long.

England, with their stiff upper lips, fare much better. In India they have won five, drawn six and lost six in the very next game after losing a Test. Indeed, who could forget their 2006 victory in Mumbai, a well-thumbed page in the history books.

Away from home over a greater study period of 35 games, the record doesn't stand up to scrutiny. They have lost 17 of the previous 35.

Returning to Mohali is unlikely to aid a fragile state. Two years ago at the Punjab CA stadium they suffered one of those defeats that shouldn't have been. They collapsed to 181 all out in the third innings on a good surface to lose by nine wickets.

Sehwag blitzed an unbeaten half-century in that match and his form at the venue is good. He averages 77.5 runs every time he goes to the crease. Tendulkar, too, is a danger. He averages 50.2 runs per innings. The pair will attract most interest on the first-innings top runscorer market.

India have lost only once at Mohali in eight contests, mainly because the surface is spin friendly and historically Anil Kumble, who has retired, and Harbhajan Singh have been too hot to handle. They played three spinners in that match against England in 2006.

Amit Mishra, the legspinner, is capable of forming a solid partnership with Harbhajan. He has shown promise as a fledgling Test player and he should feel confident on a ground where 25 of the last 64 wickets to fall have been to spin. Of those wickets to turn, 11 are English. It is another psychological barrier England must clear to avoid a series defeat.