Test previews / Ed Hawkins / 04 November 2008 /

India are 1-0 up in the Series, it should be perfect batting wicket, Harbajhan Singh should be back, Kumble has retired and Ganguly will be batting for India for the last time. All in all, a mouth-watering prospect awaits us in the final Test. Ed Hawkins talks us through the betting.

One of the senses has been disabled for bettors ahead of the potentially nailbiting fourth and final Test between India and Australia, which starts in the early hours of Thursday in Nagpur.

With India leading 1-0 it would normally be a prerequisite to trawl through previous statistics for the venue - discovering the type of bowler that does well, the batsmen that have struggled there previously and first-innings averages - but with the Vidarbha Cricket Association Stadium brand new, we are betting blind, if you will. India are [3.95], Australia [4.00] and the draw is [1.99].

There could be some confusion surrounding the fixture for those who have not picked up on the newswires that the VCA Stadium is new because the old ground in Nagpur went by the same name. Indeed, the teams even trained there this week because its replacement was undergoing last-minute safety checks. It was only passed fit to stage the Test on Tuesday.

It is something of a shame that we have a new venue to work with. Had the Test been scheduled for the old VCA ground, we could risk a small amount on Australia coming from behind to level the series because the wicket would have perfectly suited their fast bowlers.

As it is we must make do with those newswires again. Here's what Australia's leading runscorer, Mike Hussey, said about the pitch. "I've been told that it's a beautiful green, grassy square, but there is one strip that's not got a blade of grass on it."
That would indicate India have asked the groundsman to prepare something flat and placid with only the potential for spin. Of course, the home team's board are not allowed to dictate to the curator according to ICC rules but no-one is naïve enough to believe that a few words have not been whispered in his ear.

India do not need to win the match with a stalemate enough to secure a famous victory and bring Australia back to earth with a bump following more than 20 years in the cricketing stratosphere. So although we have lost one sense with the ground change, we would have to be blind, deaf and stupid not to recognise that if India will get the chance they will bat and bat and bat.

That should mean the draw price will shorten considerably if India get the opportunity to bat first. On the other side of the coin, Australia will be wary that they cannot take too much time out of the match if they were to bat first and need to leave as many overs as possible to try to take 20 India wickets.

The likelihood of that happening can be best illustrated by the three previous Tests - remember in those games they have managed 14 home scalps - when Australia's lack of a spinner has cost them. Also, we can check on India's performances in the last Test of a series when 1-0 up for a guide. They are pretty strong, losing only twice and winning five times.

What we should also consider for the sake of balance is the vibe that India's players get from playing in Nagpur. It is not a good one. In this city they have played nine Tests and won only two - against Sri Lanka in 1986 and Zimbabwe in 2002. In those eras the opposition were both considered hopeless. They have a 50-50 record in 12 one-dayers there, too.

There are likely to be changes to personnel for both teams. Cameron White, Australia's forlorn legspinner, could make way for offie Jason Krejza while paceman Doug Bollinger (awful in a stint with Worcestershire two seasons ago) is in contention.

India are without Anil Kumble, who has brought to an end a wonderful career. MS Dhoni will lead in his absence. Gautam Gambhir could escape his ban for elbowing Shane Watson in Delhi but Harbhajan Singh should be fit again after a toe injury.

Change is very much the theme. The game will be Sourav Ganguly's final Test for India meaning that the much-vaunted batting line-up of Tendulkar-Dravid-Ganguly-Laxman play together for the final time.

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