Test previews / Ed Hawkins / 14 October 2008 / Leave a comment

Having worked out pretty much everything that was going to happen in the First Test before a ball was bowled in anger, based on his comprehensive stats, Ed "The Hawkeye" Hawkins is back to look ahead to the 2nd Test at Mohali where the toss will as ever, be crucial.

When betting is as easy as it was for the first Test between India and Australia in Bangalore, there are few pastimes in the world that can compare. Following the euphoria of a profitable contest, there comes a feeling of unease, however: can it be so straightforward again?

That is the thought nagging away in the back of the mind ahead of the second Test at Mohali, which starts on Thursday morning. After India and Australia drew the first match of the four game series at the Chinnaswamy stadium with the formbook proving robust, it would be wise to put our faith in it again. Really you should have won money if you had jotted down the stats which this site offered.

The team bowling first rarely won, India had a poor record in the first Test of a home series (they have now failed to win eight of the last 11), an awful record at the venue (worsening to just four wins in 18) and the average first-innings match score in the previous six was 431 (Australia scored 430).

So the first question to answer is how do the home side cope with conditions at the PCA stadium? Not very good is the reply with only two wins from seven. India are [3.55] to go 1-0 up with Australia [3.70] and the draw [2.22].

These prices are almost identical to the ones on offer before the start of game one, which suggests punters did not think Australia were a dominant enough to force a rethink. Remember India started this series as favourites and they remain so, mainly because their spin threat looked potent in Bangalore.

If Anil Kumble and Harbhajan Singh are to prove to be the difference between the team then Mohali is a venue (have a look at a ground profile here http://content-uk.cricinfo.com/statsguru/content/ground/57991.html) where they should be expected to dominate. India played three spinners there the last time they played (Piyush Chawla joined the current incumbents) in 2006 and 11 of England's 20 wickets to fall in a nine-wicket humbling went to spinners.

If that gives India an edge, so too does their record in the second Test of a series at home. They have won four of their last six and have been beaten in only one of their last 10. This is the rubber when India start to warm to their task of protecting an excellent home record.

Kumble's team should shorten considerably if they win the toss and bat first. Only one team has won there in the seven Tests played after fielding first and just like Bangalore, it could be the trade of the Test to lay the team that is forced to sweat it out in the field on the first day.

Otherwise, we should expect a wicket which is not as favourable to batsmen as the Chinnaswamy surface. India were knocked over for 83 against New Zealand in 1999 and over the last five Tests the average first innings match score is 313. Odds will be short for such a total for either India or Australia batting first when the market becomes available but the key is to play it smart. If a wicket falls quickly, as in Australia's first dig when Matt Hayden went early, the value on such a wager is apparent.

The page in the formbook referring to Virender Sehwag at Bangalore was the only one which was screwed up and thrown in the waste basket and although that may put off some bettors backing him for top India runscorer honours in the first innings - he is [4.90] - then his record at Mohali should banish those worries. He has centuries in two of his last three first innings there.