Test previews / Ed Hawkins / 16 August 2011 /

Ed Hawkins has a 100 per cent record from the first three Tests. Read his advice for game four, which starts on Thursday at The Oval

England
James Anderson is a major doubt for England and it would be a major surprise if they risked him in what, effectively, is a meaningless contest. Anderson has a tight right quad and the selectors may take the opportunity to give the 18-wicket swing ace a rest.

In his place will come Graham Onions, who has not played for England since the start of 2010. Something of a forgotten man, Onions used to be the coming man. He has shown solid, if not spectacular, form for Durham this term.

Ravi Bopara should retain his place with Jonathan Trott left out of the squad with a shoulder injury. A failure in this Test and Bopara may not get another chance for a long time.

India
Sreesanth and Ishant Sharma look vulnerable to the chop following horrifying figures in the humiliation at Edgbaston. Sreesanth went wicketless for 158 and Sharma's one scalp cost a run more. RP Singh, called up to the squad before the Birmingham Test, looks certain to play while Munaf Patel may also be drafted in.

At least there are no new injury worries to report. Gautam Gambhir and Virender Sehwag, despite his king pair, should prosper on the surface.

Venue and conditions
We say it every year but The Oval is a batting paradise. We should expect plenty of runs in the first match innings at least. The average in the last 10 is a whopping 413. Surprisingly, the easy nature of the surface early on has not meant a glut of draws; there have been only two stalemates during that sequence.

That means a lay of the draw if first-innings runs are being piled on could be a wise move. The surface does have a tendency to break up as the match progresses and spin bowlers, historically, are a threat.

In county cricket this season, there have been two draws from four. The scores in the four first match innings were: 322, 419, 225 and 387.

Pacemen who bend their backs and spinners get the most reward. Stuart Broad has a strike rate of 35 and Graeme Swann 40.

Light rain is forecast for day one but the next three days are clear.

Match odds
There may not be very many opportunities in the near future to bet the No 1 side in the world at big odds-against so taking the [2.38] about a whitewash for England makes sense.

It is the obsession with the draw on this ground which has pushed out the home side's price. But as already discussed the surface is sporting once the first two digs are out of the way. Wickets can fall in clusters.

India, who have yet to pass 300 in the series, should be capable of busting 400 this time and if they bat first and go well, getting against the stalemate at what will be very skinny odds is the top in-running ploy.

Top England batsman
Unsurprisingly, England's batsmen have good numbers for this ground in Tests since 2000. Kevin Pietersen averages 65, Andrew Strauss 42 and Alastair Cook 44. Ian Bell disappoints with a mark of 32.

In the last 10 first match innings, openers have top-scored four times. With such a record, and Cook's epic at Edgbaston, some may consider him value at [4.70]. Pietersen should go off at around [5.00]. Both are [1.72] for a half-century at the first opportunity.

Top India batsman
India's batsmen have better figures than England's at The Oval. Rahul Dravid averages 94.6, VVS Laxman 68, Sachin Tendulkar 45 and MS Dhoni 64, albeit from one game for the India skipper. An Indian centurion in the first innings is priced at [1.74].

Best bet: back England to win fourth Test at [2.38]

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