Test previews / Ed Hawkins / 15 December 2009 /

The sides go head-to-head on Wednesday in Centurion for the first of four eagerly-awaited Tests. Ed Hawkins looks at the stats, trends and odds to give you the best punting package ahead of the game

Team news
The will he won't he saga surrounding Jacques Kallis looks finally to be resolved. He will play at SuperSport Park after recovering from a rib injury according to the South Africa coaching staff but as a batsman only. No doubt Kallis will have a calming effect on his teammates given the tailspin they often dive headlong into when he is not around.

South Africa skipper Graeme Smith has openly admitted that they don't know how to cope without him. If it is all a smokescreen and Kallis misses out, it is worth knowing that in their last six Tests without him, they have won twice. Kallis' inclusion means South Africa are likely to go with just the four bowlers - Paul Harris, Morne Morkel, Dale Steyn, Makhaya Ntini - with Ashwell Prince moving up to open the batting.

England's injury problems appear to be worsening. James Anderson will be risked despite a knee injury while Graeme Swann is struggling with a side strain. Beware the team which goes into a Test with two unfit bowlers.

Match odds
When you consider that the only game South Africa have lost at Centurion in 10 years was one at the centre of the match-fixing scandal - the infamous leather jacket match against England in 2000 - then the [2.42] about the hosts looks tempting indeed.

Add to the mix England's atrocious record in the first Test of a series abroad and we have a wager on our hands. England, who are a forgettable [4.60], have lost their last five opening Tests on tour. They have won only one of their last eight - as long ago as 2004 against South Africa in Port Elizabeth.

South Africa will be aware of this and are likely to try to bully England, a backyard match-up which looks unfair in the extreme given England's fitness worries and their ability to stand toe-to-toe with sides in terms of taking 20 wickets. Make no mistake that is what this game comes down to. South Africa have done it eight times in the last 14, England just four.

Pitch conditions
SuperSport Park is not the batsman's paradise which one would expect. In the last 10 Tests, only three sides have passed 300 or more. Indeed, there has been a familiar pattern to matches. The opposition have batted, South Africa have knocked them over cheaply and then gone on to post a whopping total. Food for thought when perusing the odds for England to score 350 or more.

Draw layers (currently taking [2.64]) should be wary of such a scenario reoccurring. This is unlikely to be a game where the stalemate is odds on before lunch. Instead it might be that the price drifts into well into the second day before making it way back with a side batting well.

The weather is set fair. The only rain forecast at the moment is for a light shower on Saturday.

Top batsman
Prince is a man to bow to for this contest. He has a brilliant record at Centurion with three top-bat honours, and three tons, in recent matches and a price of [6.60] does not reflect course form. Prince will open the batting for only the second time but have no fear. The last time he did it he scored 150 against Australia at Cape Town earlier this year. He has a good record against England, too having taken two centuries off them in 2008.

For England, we don't have a particularly strong view apart from opposing Johnathan Trott and Paul Collingwood. The [5.70] about Trott is too short for a man who has played only one Test while Collingwood, [7.80], could struggle on a wicket which is expected to take bounce.

Featured market
Skipper Andrew Strauss, with more than 1,000 runs in the last 12 months, has rarely found batting easier. His opening partner, Alastair Cook, is struggling. Strauss looks a steal at [1.91] to outscore him in a match bet.

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