Test previews / Ed Hawkins / 08 December 2008 / Leave a comment

Play goes on in India and so, therefore, does the betting. Ed Hawkins looks at the stats and the odds ahead of the first Test in Chennai where the weather can play a significant role in the result.

Two days before the start of the on-off-on two-Test series between India and England and already we know the winner and loser. Freedom stands tall and proud on the podium while terror skulks in the shadows, beaten and bowed.

During the course of the two matches, with the first beginning in Chennai early on Thursday, some players will prosper, others will fail, a captain may wear a furrowed brow and the respective teams will move either up or down a rankings table. None of it will matter.

That there is cricket at all is significant. Following the decision of the England players to return to India, the terrorists responsible for the atrocities in Mumbai have been told, loud and clear, that bombs and bullets cannot destroy the cultural and commercial fabric of a country.

India and England, as Kevin Pietersen promised, will stand shoulder to shoulder. The result could be a series played in a spirit befitting the great game. The reminder that life reverberates to greater sounds than leather on willow should release tension in body and soul. In short, for the purist it could be an enjoyable series.

Of course, the autonomy, bonhomie and political importance of the series should not distract us that there are odds available for the series. If it is business as usual for the players, then it is business as usual for the punters. That is as it should be.

England, largely written off because off-the-field worries often manifest themselves on it, are [11.0] with India [1.50]. A drawn series is [3.90].

Phrases like 'nothing to lose' and 'no-win situation' have been used to describe England's predicament. They are probably accurate but who can tell whether that will bring the best out of a team who have so often been accused of fear and introspection?

It is not easy to answer. There are hints from history. In 1984-85 England won in India when they would rather have been at home, sheltering from political violence which claimed the life of the British deputy commissioner, shot dead the morning after a cocktail party with the players.

In 2001 an England team looking over their shoulder following the 9-11 attacks and depleted by the withdrawals for security reasons of Robert Croft and Andrew Caddick played with bravery in a 1-0 defeat. Five years later England drew 1-1 and although there were few reasons for players to fear for their safety, they were similarly written off. Add it all up and you have a series score from the last seven which reads India 3 England 3.

The venue for the first Test in Chennai, formerly Madras, should suit England. For their bowlers there could be crucial swing and seam, such rarities in India.

That could be because of what could be going on above their heads rather than below it. When the sun shines it is a good wicket to bat on but with the rainy season underway in Chennai, storm clouds are gathering in every respect for batsmen.

Consider that in the wet months of December and January the average first-innings score is 238 (over the last five Tests) as opposed to 415 in other months, and you have a golden nugget of punting information.

Sri Lanka were the opponents the last time a Test was played in Chennai and India suffered thanks to the overhead conditions. They were bowled out for 167 with Chaminda Vaas, an English-style bowler at heart, taking 4-20. The Test ended in a draw to make it three stalemates from the last three.

If such knowledge helps play on the first-innings total market, there is another potential edge in the top runscorer market. Virender Sehwag made 319 against South Africa on this ground last time and top-scored in first-innings in matches in 2004 and 2002 against Australia and West Indies respectively.

However, if a play on innings runs takes your fancy or Sehwag's swashbuckling style fits the bill, rest assured that profit or loss, a result of greater importance has already been decided.