Test previews / Ed Hawkins / 28 July 2010 /

Swing could be king when these two sides meet at Trent Bridge from Thursday in the series opener. Ed Hawkins marks your card with the best bets

Team news
England have been dealt a blow by the loss of fast bowler Ajmal Shahzad to an ankle injury. Tim Bresnan has been called up but is unlikely to play. That means the home side will attack Pakistan with a pace triumvirate of James Anderson, Stuart Broad and Steven Finn.

Eoin Morgan won the battle ahead of Ravi Bopara for the No 6 slot, a decision which may be more to do with a lack of faith in Kevin Pietersen's form. Pietersen has not played for a month and could be rusty on the return to a former stomping ground.

For Pakistan it is all about Mohammad Aamer and Mohammad Asif. The swing kings have been hyped to high heaven following their demolition of Australia at Headingley. Undoubtedly bowling is Pakistan's strongest suit. They may regret by the end of the series not bringing one from Mohammad Yousuf and Younis Khan.

Venue and conditions
Other than Headingley if there was one venue where Pakistan would have liked to have opened the series it would have been Trent Bridge. No-one is quite sure why there is so much swing but bend and hoop it does. The average first-innings score in the 2000s is a respectable 330.

That figure doesn't tell the whole story, however. There have been three scores of fewer than 232; England were undone by swing against India in 2007. Batting first could well be tricky but don't be surprised if wickets continue to fall. In eight matches since 2000, 13 times a side has been bowled out for 232 or fewer.

With those numbers in mind, one of the better wagers may be laying Pakistan for 300 or more in their first-innings. You should be able to get around even money. The forecast is for cloud on day one with rain threatening play on day two.

Series odds
England are as short as [1.46] for victory. Disrespectful? Probably not. Pakistan, who are [5.70] will have played six Tests in seven weeks by the time of the fourth and final Test, a schedule which will surely take its toll. The draw is [5.90] but the best wager looks to be a 2-1 England victory at [5.80]. England beat Pakistan 3-0 at home four years ago but in 1996 and 1992 the tourists enjoyed series victories.

Match odds
Pakistan were as big as [9.00] to beat Australia in Leeds. To beat England in Nottingham they are [4.60]. Such a dip tells you a lot about the respective faith punters have in England and Australia, and also the power of the media machine: Aamer and Asif have been lauded as the two best bowlers in the world.

They are good, for sure. But if they are to lead Pakistan to victory they must bowl first. This column advised backing Pakistan at Headingley before the flip on the basis that a 50-50 call made them value. This time it is better to wait until we know who is bowling first.

If it is England, make no mistake they would rank a fine bet at [1.87]. Anything Aamer and Asif can do, James Anderson can do all on his own. Anderson can make it swing both ways and Pakistan's inexperienced batting line-up could easily be wrecked.

Top batsman
Andrew Strauss was England's top series runscorer the last time the sides met and he makes appeal at [4.90]. Otherwise, it's all rather negative. Alastair Cook's holey technique could be exposed by Aamer and Asif while Pietersen is out of touch. You can lay either at [2.44] and [2.24] respectively for a 50 in first innings. Pakistan captain Salman Butt is a fair [4.20] jolly but Kamran Akmal might appeal under Any Other at [5.80].

Recommended Bet: Back the side bowling first in first Test

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

:

:

:

?

: