Fifth Test Match Betting: West Indies v England

Test previews / Ed Hawkins / 04 March 2009 / Leave a Comment

The good news for England as they try to level the Series is that the Trinidad wicket tends to produce results. The bad news for England is that they have a poor record of winning final Tests when they really need to, says Ed Hawkins.

The pressure is on England when the fifth and final Test against West Indies starts in Trinidad on Friday. They must win. Unfortunately for their supporters in such situations they rarely rise to the occasion, the puffing out of chests seems to be there for effect rather than as a genuine demonstration of confidence.

Of their last five Tests when they have had to win to either save a series or keep it alive, they have failed in four of them. The only victory came against India in Mumbai in 2006. Three times they have gone out with a whimpering stalemate and twice they have lost.

Indeed, this is the third successive away tour where England have found themselves walking out onto the field with that 'must win' tag around their neck. In December against India in Mohali they were 1-0 down, versus New Zealand in Napier in 2008 they succeeded in avoiding a draw against a team that couldn't spell WIN while in Galle in 2007 they failed to level with Sri Lanka.

Rest assured that the proximity of these situations suggests one thing: England are just not as good as everyone thinks they are. Moreover, if they lose the series to West Indies, who have not beaten any of the proper Test nations in their last 15 series, it must surely rank as their most damaging defeat since the 2-1 reverse to New Zealand in 1999.

There is some confidence in England on the match odds market with the tourists at [3.00] and West Indies at [4.30]. England's woes aside, what really catches the eye is the price of the draw at a skinny [2.24].

Simply, and good news for England this, the Queen's Park Oval is the most bowler-friendly wicket in the Caribbean with only one stalemate in the last 14 Tests there. During that sequence only one side has passed more than 350 in first-innings and there have been three scores of 187 or fewer.

Perhaps punters are still run-drunk after the gluts at Antigua Recreation ground and Kensington Oval but with a first-innings average of just 262, it would suggest that when play gets underway we need to put the previous two Tests to the back of the mind and play the runs markets with confidence.

Further evidence of tricky Trinidad comes in the form of two facts at either end of the need-to-know spectrum. The last three Tests have been won by the side bowling first, a rarity in Tests, while the average second-wicket partnership in first innings there is 24 - obscure but fascinating.

One of the chief beneficiaries of the wicket down the years has been Steve Harmison, whose first up 6-61 in 2004 helped England to a seven-wicket win. Harmison could well come back to the side after being dropped for Barbados with England desperate for 20 wickets and considering playing five bowlers. If not, Amjad Khan looks a certainty for his Test debut. The Kent paceman has both conventional and reverse swing, and could be a handful on this track.

As far as the top runscorer market goes, the wicket helps make up our minds. We should avoid the openers and No. 3s (remember our obscure stat) and go for someone in the middle order. Paul Collingwood's combination of grit and poise could be ideal on a minefield while for West Indies Shivnarine Chanderpaul is perfectly positioned at No. 5. He has two 50s in his last four innings there.