England v New Zealand Betting: Outcome may well be decided by the toss of a coin...literally

Test previews / Ed Hawkins / 03 June 2008 / Leave a Comment

The Hawkeye View - Ed Hawkins can't shy away from the Robin Hood references as the final Test moves to Trent Bridge, Nottingham. The toss will of course be crucial but what other factors do we need to consider?

WHEN England are in Nottingham for a Test match it is difficult not to resort to weak references to the legend of Robin Hood, the dastardly sheriff and, particularly when betting is concerned, taking from the rich and giving to the poor.

Michael Vaughan's band of merry men (see, I couldn't help myself) take on New Zealand at Trent Bridge tomorrow as firm favourites to wrap up the series 2-0 after their remarkable comeback at Old Trafford.

England are [1.73] for back-to-back Test wins - in recent history at home against West Indies and Pakistan when they have won one they have followed it up with another - with the Kiwis [6.4] and the draw [3.7].

But unimaginative harking back to Robin and his pals aside, it is rather fitting that this Test could be decided by something which the famous outlaw was fascinated by: a coin. I'm talking about the toss, of course.

It could be absolutely crucial with Trent Bridge expected to help the swing bowlers. Remember last summer when India won an important flip and their bowlers bent it round corners to make the English look foolish?

In that contest England were bowled out for just 198 with Zaheer Khan taking four wickets as India went 1-0 up and held firm for a series victory. India were a similar price to New Zealand for that game and you won't find this column putting anyone off arguing that backing New Zealand at big prices could pay dividends if Daniel Vettori calls correctly.

Swing bowler Tim Southee, who was dropped in favour of Iain O'Brien for the Old Trafford Test, is expected to return while fellow pacemen Chris Martin and Kyle Mills will be licking their lips when looking through the recent scorecards for the ground.

They suggest that if New Zealand were to bowl first, then they should be capable of making early inroads in to the home team batting.

This season in the County Championship there has been only one innings of 300 plus. And the average first innings score in four-day cricket is a very low 222. Lancashire were knocked over for just 113, which has been the lowest total in four matches, and Sussex, with 277, made the highest.

There is evidence, too of bowler-friendly conditions in Test matches. The last two first-innings scores have been 198 (England) and 231 (Sri Lanka) and then there is a run of bat dominating ball with totals of 477, 384 and 445. But this sudden shift could be attributed to the new stands which have been built, aiding swing bowling.

This sounds all very encouraging for New Zealand, although a word of warning. They should have won in Manchester and Brendon McCullum, the vice-captain, revealed a fascinating insight into the mindset when asked about their implosion.

"We put ourselves in a position where we should have won the Test match, and that was something that heading into the Test, we may not have whole-heartedly believed," he said.
When you hear things like that it takes a leap of faith to back New Zealand at any price. And one has to ask oneself: if New Zealand couldn't win at Old Trafford with a lead of 179 runs on first-innings, what position can they win from?

They will not be helped by problems over selection. Daniel Flynn's place is in doubt after he failed in the warm-up against Northamptonshire while James Marshall looks certain to be dropped after a string of low scores.

In their place could come Peter Fulton, the giant batsman and Gareth Hopkins, who could play as a wicket-keeper allowing McCullum to bat as a specialist.

Whatever they do, they still may not be the best value. That tag goes to England, who are [5.1] to field first and win the game.