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New Zealand v England: Vaughan keen to make amends for last time's heartbreak

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The Hawkeye View - Ed Hawkins tells us why cricket statistics need to be interpreted in the context in which they happened and uses the tragic death of Ben Hollioake as an ilustration of this

APPEARANCES can be deceptive when it comes to betting. A list of results, a batting average or bowling analysis can often tell only half the story. So often it is necessary to look behind the figures for the genuine picture.

Such a process is necessary for England's prospects against New Zealand in a three-Test series which begins in Hamilton on Tuesday night.

For on the face of it, England look to have been overrated if you consider their record in the country of the Long White Cloud. It is not very good. They have won only two of their last six series there.

Punters who have taken the [1.8] about Michael Vaughan's men triumphing - New Zealand are [4.1] and the draw [4.4] - will pin their hopes on the fact that England have only ever lost seven Tests against the Kiwis - three in New Zealand- but that is a misleading statistic in itself because New Zealand have only been considered above minnow standard for the last 30 years. Indeed, their 1958 'vintage' is thought to be one of the worst international teams ever seen.

Fortunately they can be cheered if they get the chisel out and chip away at the facade of that series record. There are mitigating circumstances, some of their own making, for their failures in 1984, 1988 and 2002 when they lost 1-0 and were held 0-0 and 1-1 respectively.

That reverse 25 years ago will down as one of the most infamous defeats in England's history. It was the tour when the team, which was captained by Bob Willis, was accused (and later cleared) of smoking pot and they lost three of their 15 squad of players to injury or illness.

However, it was obvious that the England team - which included such luminaries as Gower, Lamb and Botham - had perhaps been guilty of some unprofessionalism. They were hammered by an innings in Christchurch in the second Test, being bowled out for 82 and 93.

Four years later England's tourists were guilty of not enjoying anything about their trip. A disaffected unit were surly - Graham Dilley was fined for swearing at an umpire - and uninspiring.

The point of these two examples in the context of the current England team's series is that they are neither unprofessional off the pitch or a ripped apart by division one it. Sure, in the past there were cliques which did not mix socially in terms of personalities and their chosen way to relax and the infighting was banished when Duncan Fletcher and Nasser Hussain were coach and captain.

So what can the excuse be for England's failure to win in New Zealand in 2002 with those two at the helm?

They were 1-0 up after winning an extraordinary first Test in Christchurch (see the scorecard here http://content-uk.cricinfo.com/ci/engine/match/63981.html) and looked in a different class to the hosts.

Then, tragically, all the wind from England's sails was sucked from them with the news that their all-rounder, Ben Hollioake, had died in a car crash in Western Australia. The players were told at lunch on the third morning of the second Test at Wellington and England, after the resumption, slumped from 199 for four to 280 all out.

As bettors we all use statistics to form a cornerstone of a wager, so remember the above facts when doing your research for game two at Wellington this time around. That game was called a "sideshow" by Wisden. Punters will call it irrelevant.

Unsurprisingly England had other things on their mind when it came to the third Test. Fletcher later wrote in his autobiography Behind the Shades that it was virtually impossible to raise the squad's spirit and they collapsed in the third Test.

The point of this article is not to defend England's efforts in New Zealand. This no diatribe by a whingeing Pom, after all there is no place for patriotism in punting, just an attempt to prove that there is more to what meets the eye when looking at head-to-heads. And if anything, it shows that there will be no excuses for England this time if they do come away with spoils.

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