Test previews / Ed Hawkins / 30 December 2008 / Leave a comment

Graeme Smith's men have stunned Australia by winning the first two Tests. Will Ricky Ponting's men bite back having had their pride wounded or will South Africa's talismanic skipper gee up his troops for one last time and deliver a whitewash, asks Ed Hawkins.

Worry not if you are failing to contact Australian relatives to wish them a happy new year; they are too stunned to answer the telephone or respond to emails following their cricket team's historic series defeat to South Africa in Melbourne on Monday.

Indeed Australia, with its plethora of bugs and instincts, is no place to wander around open-mouthed but that is likely to be the scene across the land as it slowly dawns on the inhabitants that their Baggy Green heroes have been beaten at home for the first time in 16 years.

West Indies were the last side to win Down Under and there were no crumbs of comfort that it was a South Africa team, almost as unpopular as England in those parts, who this time shredded records and reputations.

Graeme Smith's side won in Melbourne for the first time in five attempts since their readmission to Tests and in so doing reached 11 wins for 2008, a streak that has been matched only twice previously.

If South Africa were clutching such evidence of their domination tightly, their Australia counterparts were left wondering how they had lost so badly the grip on their own games. Matt Hayden, who averages just 11 in the four home Tests this year, looks a broken batsman while the captaincy skills of Ricky Ponting will be scrutinised.

They have the chance to redeem themselves in Sydney for the New Year Test, which starts on Friday night, and avoid the ignominy of becoming the first Australia team to lose three Tests in a row since 1988.

Not that South Africa will care a jot. At 2-0 up the series is theirs and perhaps that is the biggest clue when coming to peruse the prices. Australia are [2.86], South Africa [3.0] and the draw [2.5].

Considering Australia have been outplayed those odds look unfair but there is method to the madness. There have to be concerns about South Africa finding the desire and energy to play with the same intensity to go for the sweep.

They have form on this count. A refreshed England beat them in a dead rubber at The Oval in the summer and although Australia will be without Andrew Symonds, Brett Lee and Stuart Clark, fresh blood could give them the boost they crave.

There may be a new world order but South Africa, just as Australia did in their pomp, could find out how hard it is to maintain performance levels when a series is wrapped up.
Runs should flow at the SCG. The average first-innings score on the famous old ground is a whopping 405 - remember this stat for first-innings runs markets - while there are pointers to which batsmen could score well.

This is Ponting's most successful ground. He averages 75 there and against South Africa in 2006, when Australia won by eight wickets, he hit 120 and 143 not out. Four years previously, Hayden scored a century against the visiting Proteas.

Perhaps the best value bet could be Jacques Kallis to top score for South Africa (prices will be available soon). He scored 111 and 50 not out at the SCG last time. Smith, his main rival for honours, could struggle after monumental efforts in the first two matches with an elbow problem.

With such a debilitating injury it makes it all the more remarkable that Smith has been able to strong arm Australia from their position atop the pedestal. In February, South Africa will expect to rubber stamp a No1 world ranking by beating Australia in a three-Test series at home.

After that Australia will travel to England for the Ashes. What price that they lose four Test series in a row? That hasn't happened since 1984. Don't tell your Aussie relatives that.