Bet on Younis Khan to come good in Bangalore

Test previews / Editor / 03 December 2007 / Leave a Comment

The Hawkeye View - Ed Hawkins looks ahead to the coming week as Pakistan resume proceedings with India and Sri Lanka take on England once again

CONCENTRATING, taking things on board and learning for the next challenge is a decent skill to have in life, not just betting.

And putting those qualities in to practise in the Test matches between India and Pakistan and Sri Lanka and England would have been wise considering the action still to come.

Unfortunately, whatever wisdom one reckons one has gained from the matches in Kolkata and Kandy, it could be nigh on useless.

India and Pakistan meet in the third and final Test of their series in Bangalore on Saturday while Sri Lanka and England clash again in Colombo on Saturday.

The reason is that the conditions those games will be played in are likely to be vastly different to the ones currently challenging the players. As they say, life's a pitch.

In Kolkata, the batsmen of India and Pakistan enjoyed a run feast on a placid surface but the track at the Chinnaswamy Stadium is likely to favour the bowlers.

Transversely, batting was tough at the Asgiriya Stadium in Kandy but by comparison should be a stroll in the park at the Sinhalese Sports Club.

Indeed, it could be a real role reversal in the Indo-Pak series. The hosts have dominated so far but Bangalore is not a venue where they thrive and Pakistan should have a good chance of victory.

India have lost four of their last five matches and one of those was a draw. Pakistan triumphed there in the last Test that was played there in 2005.

And that win could give a few clues for punters. Younis Khan made a brilliant 267 as the visitors posted 570 first up to go on to win by a whopping 168 runs.

Given Younis' form at the ground, he could be a bit of value for top Pakistan first-innings runscorer honours.

What further backs that up is how opening batsman struggle at the venue. In the last ten Tests, only one opener has top scored in the first two innings. That was Virender Sehwag in 2005 with a double ton against Pakistan but he is not playing in the current series.

The No. 3 and 4 batsmen have been far more prolific, totalling ten top-bat honours in the last 20 first innings.

There are plenty more punting options. And most of them centre around the value which should be present because of the runscoring in Kolkata but the historic lack of it in Bangalore.

The first match innings average is 342 but three sides have been shot out for 158 or fewer in the last ten. Indeed, India's batsmen have struggled more than most. Their first innings average score in the last five is a pathetic 218, which should make players of the first innings totals market think hard.

Ditto, first-ininngs lead backers. India have conceded a lead in four of their last five matches at the ground.

In Colombo, the runs should flow, however. The first match innings average score at Kandy was only just above 210 but at the SSC it stands at 320. That does not quite tell the whole story, however. Sri Lanka amassed 756 for five declared against South Africa last year.

Kumar Sangakkara made 287 and Mahela Jayawardene as the pair broke the world record for a third wicket partnership with a stand of 624.

England, who have always been a side who need some help from the conditions for their bowlers, look vulnerable therefore.

The stats back it up. Sri Lanka have failed to gain an advantage on first dig only once in their last five matches there and have lost only once in the last 12 - and that was to Australia.
It gets worse. England average 24 runs per wicket when batting there. Of the other established Test nations only New Zealand 20.5 have an inferior tally.

Draw backers beware, too. There has been one stalemate in the last 13 and that was because of a first day washout.

Surprisingly, England did manage a win at the SSC in 2001. But as we know, this cricketing week is all about tearing up your crib sheets of the past.