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Australia's class of 2007 is too strong for Sri Lanka

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Andrew Hughes looks at Muralitharan and Sri Lanka's chances against an Australian side in transition

The first test between Australia and Sri Lanka in Brisbane on 8th November is intriguing for a number of reasons. It is the first time these two have come face to face in a test match since 2004 and only the third match between them in the last ten years, a scandalous dearth of fixtures between two of the most exciting teams of recent years. There is a good chance that the greatest spinner in the game, Mutiah Muralitharan, could finally overhaul Shane Warne's wicket taking record. It is also our first sight of a new and exciting Australian bowling attack. There is much to see and from the betting point of view, some angles to exploit.

The first thing to say is that this is the best Sri Lankan touring side ever to go to Australia so they are not without a chance. Indeed, without Warne and McGrath, it might appear that the current odds for the series are too skewed in Australia's favour. But if you are tempted by the 9.2 for Sri Lanka, or the 5.1 for the drawn series, hold off. The weather forecast for the next three weeks is fine and these two sides are laden with wicket taking bowlers. In all likelihood, Sri Lanka will need to win twice without reply in order to take the series. History tells us this is the tallest of tall orders. Consequently, I would be reluctant to back the tourists at less than double figures for the series.

Even without Warne and McGrath, Australia's wicket taking potential is barely diminished, with the additions of Stuart Macgill and Mitchell Johnson. They might leak a few more runs, but that is not enough to take them on at their current 1.33. During this transition period, they will need to draw more heavily on their mid-order batting, but it should be remembered that this is the best middle-order batting line up in the world. It may not be quite up there with the 2001 side, but that was possibly one of the greatest batting line-ups of all time. A middle order of Ponting, the Waugh twins, Martyn and Gilchrist deserved to be mentioned in the same breath as Bradman's 'Invincibles' of 1948. In any case, the comparison is not entirely like for like. Since 2005, Australia have changed the balance of their team, to incorporate an all-rounder at number six. This was a fundamental shift that came out of the calamity of the 2005 Ashes, recognising that in a post-McGrath and Warne world they would not be able to rely on four specialist bowlers alone.

And since that low point of 2005, Ponting's batting has reached new heights, assisted by the frighteningly good Mike Hussey and the blossoming of Michael Clarke. The reassuring presence of Gilchrist at seven means that the hard-hitting Andrew Symonds can be accommodated at number six. It was more than enough for England last year and at home, I don't believe there is a batting line up in the world that can match them, on paper or in reality. As well as being supremely talented individuals, they bat as a unit, make a conscious effort to build partnerships, target weak links in the bowling mercilessly and have tremendous reserves of experience to draw upon.

But if backing the home side at short odds is not your thing, have a look at the market on the finishing time of the First Test. Brisbane has historically been a result pitch and whilst the thunderstorms you get in that part of the world can wipe out an entire day, the current forecast is for good weather. Though the pitch may be flatter these days, both sides are laden with wicket-taking bowlers and I would be surprised if this match went to the fifth day. I would recommend laying a Day 5 evening finish, even at the current 4.5. But if you prefer not to lay at that price, you could do worse than backing a Day 4 finish, either in the afternoon at 8.0 or the evening at 6.0. In fact, you could cover both and still make a healthy profit.

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