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Australia v India - 2nd Test

Will history repeat itself in Sydney after the Aussies wallop India in the 1st Test ?

IT is often debated on the Betfair cricket forum how far back in history a punter should look when researching a bet. The answer is simple: trawl through the record books as long as you like until you are satisfied that you have formed an opinion, never the other way round.

One of the most dangerous games a bettor can play is to have an opinion and then conduct a piecemeal stats search for the data which, in his eyes, proves him right.

For example, if you reckon India are capable of a comeback against Australia in their four-Test series, then the 2001 series fits the bill perfectly.

India lost the opening Test in Mumbai of that series by ten wickets but won the final two matches to ensure the contest went down in history as one of the greatest of all time.

The fact that Rahul Dravid, Sachin Tendulkar, Sourav Ganguly and VVS Laxman played in that series and are present again suggest it is not folly to be tempted by prices as big as [38].

However, if we look at the record books with the above facts in the back of our mind rather than at the forefront, it is likely that we will form the opinion that India do not stand a hope in hell of forcing their way back into the series.

Of the last ten series - stretching all the way back to 1996 - when India have lost the opening Test, that 2001 resurgence is an anomaly. India have lost seven of those series and drawn two.
Worryingly in the wake of their 337-run hammering at the MCG, the majority of those first Test losses have been chastening experiences.

That history of mental fragility does not bode well for an India team who looked as though they had surrendered in mind first, body later in Melbourne.

On talent alone it is inexplicable that India's batting should be twice shot out so cheaply against a bowling attack which, with the retirements of Shane Warne and Glenn McGrath still so recent, is second best.

However, in terms of what is going on upstairs it is not surprising. Australia will be cocky and arrogant enough to believe they can beat anyone with anyone until sides all around the world consistently stand up to them - not scurry into their shells like Dravid and Wasim Jaffer did in India's first dig at the MCG.

Certainly India need to find some guts before the second Test in Syndey and then in Perth and Adelaide.

Perhaps captain Anil Kumble should form the opinion that his side can hit back. He could remember that epic series in 2001 or even Australia's defeat to England more recently after Ricky Ponting's team enjoyed an easy win in the first Test at Lord's.

The rest of us - and I've saved you the time with this one - already know what is likely to happen. No side has won a series in Australia after losing the first Test since England in 1954-55.
Do you think India are too mentally fragile to give Australia a game?

India's series record after losing first Test

V Australia 2004 (h)
First Test Series result
Lost 217 runs Lost 2-1

V New Zealand 2002 (a)
First Test Series result
Lost 10 wkts Lost 2-0

V England 2002 (a)
First Test Series result
Lost 170 runs Drew 1-1

V South Africa 2001 (a)
First Test Series result
Lost 9 wkts Lost 1-0

V Sri Lanka 2001 (a)
First Test Series result
Lost 10 wkts Lost 2-1

V Australia (h)
First Test Series result
Lost 10 wkts Won 2-1

V South Africa 2000 (h)
First Test Series result
Lost 4 wkts Lost 2-0

V Australia (a)
First Test Series result
Lost 285 runs Lost 3-0

V Pakistan 1999 (h)
First Test Series result
Lost 12 runs Drew 1-1

V South Africa (a)
First Test Series result
Lost 328 runs Lost 2-0

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