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SRI LANKA V INDIA
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Sri Lanka's clash with India on Friday is shaping up as being one of the most interesting and important of the opening phase of the World Cup with defeat almost certain to send Rahul Dravid's men out of the tournament much earlier than their many supporters would have expected.
The stunning upset of their defeat by Bangladesh has left them very vulnerable, and with Sri Lanka showing off their form against the same opposition on Wednesday, Dravid and company will have to be at their very best if they are to avoid the same ignominy as their fierce rivals Pakistan and take an early flight home for a big internal enquiry.
Although India recovered from the disappointment of the Bangladesh defeat by thumping an out-classed Bermuda by a record 257 runs on Monday, there is no chance of Sri Lanka rolling over and giving them an easy ride into the second stage with results against group opponents being carried forward.
Their easy win over Bangladesh would mean a two-point head-start if Habibul Bashar's side progress, and the only way India can make it through is by beating Sri Lanka, which would automatically put their Friday opponents at a disadvantage.
But the problem for India is that even a victory over Sri Lanka is no certainty to see them through, making their outright price of 12.5 something of a surprise when you consider that a team like England - certain to go through if they beat Kenya - are 18 even though if they progress they will be one of the four sides to start the Super 8 phase with zero points because of their defeat by New Zealand.
At the moment they hold a handy advantage over Bangladesh in net run rate (NRR), but even that will become an irrelevance if they fail to beat Sri Lanka, leaving Bangladesh with what should be the relatively straightforward task of beating Bermuda on Sunday to become the second shock Super 8 contestants alongside Ireland.
But what of this match? Well, given the uncertainty of their qualification it would be no huge surprise to see India bat first if they get the chance and attempt to put on a massive score to take an advantage in NRR, possibly even over the group leaders, who hold a handy lead at present.
India showed against Bermuda that they have the batsmen at their call to make huge scores, but the difference between facing part-timers, albeit brave and honest ones, and an attack that is highly under-rated in one-day cricket terms is a massive one.
At least they will have been buoyed by the showing of Virender Sehwag at the top of the order, as he smashed an impressive 114 off only 87 balls and proved at least for a short time that the loyalty captain Dravid showed to him was well-placed. Yuvraj Singh and Sachin Tendulkar also came up with cavalier innings of 83 and 57 respectively in double quick time to get them back in a bit of touch and become dangers in the top India batsman market.
And they proved finally to have found an opening bowling duo that could get the ball consistently in the right place, with Zaheer Khan and Ajit Agarkar grabbing five wickets between them - they will have to be in such good form against the different class batting line-up Sri Lanka can boast.
They also have the comfort of their record against Sri Lanka as well, with 49 wins to Sri Lanka's 36 in the history of the rivalry, a 15-7 lead in games played on neutral territory and an 8-2 (plus two no results) advantage in their last 12 meetings, although 11 of those were played in India. Sri Lanka did win the only World Cup meeting in the West Indies, but that came all the way back in 1979.
But even then they struggled to put Bermuda away - the same side bowled out for only 45 by England and 136 by Zimbabwe's powder-puff attack - and Glamorgan veteran David Hemp troubled them as his patient knock of 75 delayed the inevitable victory more than it should have.
Sehwag could well return to the top of the order for the Sri Lanka game after being dropped to three against Bermuda, with Robin Uthappa's place under threat after a second failure, but his big-hitting style could come in handy if the Indians come out with an attacking side and look to put up a massive score, or chase down a total in as few overs as possible.
Facing Sri Lanka in such an important match is going to be a tough task, though, with Mahela Jayawardene's side having played themselves into fine form with two wide-margin victories in which neither of their opponents has scored more than 100 runs.
Memories of the warm-up defeat by New Zealand are now firmly gone after Bermuda and Bangladesh were disposed of with ease, giving all of their top six batsmen the chance to get themselves in touch with a few runs.
Sanath Jayasuriya proved best of them in the 198 run win over Bangladesh, with his 109 coming off only 87 balls including seven sixes, and although his knock was cut in two by a hamstring injury, there seems little chance of the injury keeping him out of this classic encounter - as ever, if he can get through the early overs, there is always the chance of a big knock, especially against a team whom he has enjoyed a deal of success with five of his 23 ODI centuries.
But he is not the only threat, with Jayawardene, Upul Tharanga and keeper Kumar Sangakkara all capable on their day of turning a game with a quick demolition innings.
However, punters considering a bet in this match should not under-estimate the Sri Lanka bowling attack, which on its day has the talent to be the best in the tournament and makes an outright quote of 7.8 third favourites to win it all a realistic proposition.
Although spin-king Muttiah Muralitharan is the undoubted star, and possible top wicket-taker on pitches that are offering a little turn, their opening duo of Chaminda Vaas and Lasith Malinga would have to be one of the most dangerous offerings in the Caribbean.
Malinga is among the favourites to be the top wicket-taker for the tournament after grabbing six in the first two games, and his slingy action makes him dangerous with the new ball that offers swing and movement off the seam.
Add in the consistency of Vaas, one of the finest exponents of left-arm seam bowling in world cricket, and the excellent first change option provided by Farveez Maharoof, and you can see just how big a task India have in front of them if they are to provide punters taking the 2.04 about a match victory with a boost.
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