Ryan ten Doeschate / Ryan ten doeschate / 07 July 2009 / Leave a comment

They may not have replaced Shane Warne but Australia's new generation are up to the task of defending the Ashes. And, with England finding their balance at the just the right time, this is destined to be a hotly contested series, says Ryan ten Doeschate.

We resume our Championship promotion bid today and, while all my efforts will be focused on contributing to an Essex win, the cricket world will be focused on Cardiff for the start of what promises to be a fiercely-contested Ashes series.

As ever, the build-up has been immense and both teams have managed their preparations well. The tourists are short of a few tried and tested Test stars (Shane Warne, Glenn McGrath, Matthew Hayden, Justin Langer, Adam Gilchrist) and this could explain why they've been less outspoken in their build-up than previous years. But the Aussies have found capable replacements in Mitchell Johnson, Brad Haddin and Stuart Clark and, as hard as I try, I find it difficult to separate the teams.

Cardiff was not necessarily a popular choice of venue for the opening Test but I believe the Swalec Stadium will pleasantly surprise its critics and, if the pitch plays true to form, it will favour England and hopefully set them off with a much-prized opening win.

For the most part, modern Test pitches are conducive to good stroke-making and fairly big scores. I'm sure Cardiff will match up accordingly. Glamorgan had points deducted for a poor pitch in May and I'm convinced the groundsman will take extra care to ensure a good wicket. Despite this, the wicket will turn and spin will be a factor. But I think reverse swing could have equal importance.

I think England have the Aussies covered in the spin department and the combination of Graeme Swann and Monty Panesar should deliver more than the likely trio of Simon Katich, Michael Clarke and Marcus North who, with no disrespect, are Test batsmen who bowl occasionally. Despite expert opinion I feel Australia will be forced to pick Nathan Hauritz who so far hasn't looked a match-winner.

The seam attacks are evenly matched and for me they will represent the most exciting battle of the series. Brett Lee's omission is a huge blow to the Aussies hopes of winning at Cardiff, particularly as he is a master of reverse swing. Johnson has been a revelation since arriving on the scene and Peter Siddle and Ben Hilfenhaus, although relatively inexperienced, have shown much promise against a strong South African line-up. Clark is a nagging bowler in the McGrath mould and will be a dangerous threat to England's top order.

Andrew Flintoff's return is as big a boost for England as Lee's omission is a blow to Australia. Stuart Broad and James Anderson have both developed into quality Test bowlers and with Graham Onions and possibly Steve Harmison as backup I think England have the slight edge in this department too. Reverse swing could be a deciding factor as the series wears on, particularly if conditions remain as dry as it has been, so Lee could come into his own on returning from injury.

Both teams have strong batting line-ups and again there's very little to separate between them. Phil Hughes dominated the Championship during his short stint at Middlesex but Steve Harmison may already have had a hand in this series by exposing Hughes' uneasiness to the short ball. Cardiff may not offer excessive pace and bounce but you can be sure that the England seam trio will test him out.

Despite his hat-trick of Test centuries, Ravi Bopara is the untried man in England's line-up and, although he doesn't mirror Hughes in his batting position, this could be the crucial batting match-up for the series. Rav is batting well and I'm excited about what he will produce over the next six weeks. In and amongst the established batsmen in their respective teams, one of these two could stand out and make a mark on Ashes history.

So while I find it difficult to separate the teams on paper I think Cardiff's tendency to offer turn will give England the edge in the First Test. The weather forecast looks decent and I expect a run feast over the first few days. Let's hope that England can exploit the small margins that separate the teams and that 2009 can live up to all the expectations.