Pakistan v England 3rd ODI: Morgan to the fore

Pakistan v England / Ed Hawkins / 16 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

"It is probable that if the ball bent under lights in Abu Dhabi, it could well do the same in Dubai and the smart money will once more be on the side that bats first."

Ed Hawkins is expecting Pakistan to improve in game three, which starts in Dubai on Saturday

Pakistan
Chaos continues to reign for although the performance in the second one-day international from the look of the scorecard was improved from game one, Pakistan are still making barely believable errors.

In Abu Dhabi on Wednesday, Umar Akmal, in keeping with the tradition of his iron-gloved family, dropped Alastair Cook when he had 28. Cook's century won England the game. Then there was the run out of Imran Farhat at a crucial time. Schoolboy.

Pakistan need a rethink on their wicketkeeper strategy. Adnan Akmal is likely to come in as a specialist while there are also concerns about the depth of the batting. Abdur Rehman averages six in ODIS so No 8 is far too high. Sacrifice him for a batsman with Mohammad Hafeez and Farhat filling in his overs.

England
The tourists will not make a change unless they decide that the Kevin Pietersen experiment has failed. Another low strike rate - this time at 56 - suggests he does not know what his role is. Drop him and reinstate Craig Kieswetter, drafting in Jos Buttler. This won't happen, of course but it might make England more balanced in the event of a closer contest.

Venue and conditions
The series moves on to the Dubai International Cricket Stadium. The average first-innings score in the eight matches played there is 230. That is lower than the Sheikh Zayed Stadium and to look at some of the scores in isolation confirms that it is not as easy to bat on. Teams have been shot out for 168 and 131.

Pakistan have won four from eight and there is no discernible toss bias with an even split between games won by the side batting first and second. But then again, we said that about Abu Dhabi and winning the toss was key.

Match odds
The match odds market is struggling to split the two teams with Pakistan [1.98] and England [2.00]. That is more like it as we consider whether the home side can get their act together.

Still, we might not have to worry. It is probable that if the ball bent under lights in Abu Dhabi, it could well do the same in Dubai and the smart money will once more be on the side that bats first.

England, of course, have the edge and if any side were to buck the bat-first-win trend than it is most likely to be them. Pakistan's new-ball attack has been disrupted with Wahab Riaz out of the side and Umar Gul oddly ineffective. He didn't even bowl his full quota last time.

Top Pakistan batsman
Younis Khan is Pakistan's top runscorer on this ground with 213 runs in eight matches at an average of 30. He is [4.60]. Umar Akmal, at [4.00] under Any Other, which includes any batsman apart from Younis, Misbah-ul Haq, Azhar Ali, Farhat and Hafeez has the best average with a mark of 52.

Top England batsman
Cook, understandably, is favourite priced as short as [3.75]. But one can't help but think that if Cook can prosper, then surely Jonathan Trott should be in the runs, too. He is [5.10]. Eoin Morgan keeps getting bigger and at [6.40] he is a tempting wager indeed. With 25 from 29 last time he looked more like his old self and he is worth a risk. Ravi Bopara is [5.20].

Recommended bet
Eoin Morgan top England batsman @ [6.40]