Pakistan v England: Tourists to improve but flat pitch is a worry

Pakistan v England / Ed Hawkins / 23 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Jonathan Trott has to be the pick as top England batsman

"There has to be a suspicion that Pakistan are heavily reliant on Umar Gul and Saeed Ajmal and if England are able to buckle down and blunt one of those weapons then they can go much better"

Ed Hawkins expects Andrew Strauss' team to hit back in the second Test on Wednesday but high scores are likely and getting 20 Pakistani wickets will be tough

Pakistan
Unsurprisingly, Pakistan will keep faith with the 11 players who are on the brink of a famous series victory. They are buoyant, even if they have lost the services of squad member Mohammad Talha, the fast bowler, who has a back problem.

Much focus will be on Saeed Ajmal, who has taken more wickets (93) in his first 18 Tests than Shane Warne and Muttiah Muralitharan at the same stage of their careers.

Meanwhile, Javed Miandad, the former Pakistan opener, has said that England's No 1 ranking is false because it was achieved in home conditions. He may have a point.

England
Andy Flower, the coach (or team director if you want to be fancy and give him his proper title), has some problem solving to do. Chiefly how to counteract the threat of Ajmal and, secondly, the form of his batsmen.

There are worries about the play of Andrew Strauss, who has one half-century in 12 innings, Kevin Pietersen and Eoin Morgan. Only Morgan's place is likely to be in doubt, however, with Ravi Bopara standing by.

Monty Panesar could be recalled, probably at the expense of Chris Tremlett. Panesar's finger spin is a potentially potent weapon because the way the DRS system has encouraged umpires to raise their digits to batsmen padding up.

Venue and conditions
Not much to go on as there have been only two Tests played at the Sheikh Zayed Stadium in Abu Dhabi. South Africa made 584 batting first there in 2010 and Pakistan responded with 434. When Pakistan met Sri Lanka last year, the 'hosts' amassed 511 for six and Lanka 483. Both were stalemates. It would not surprise if there is a third. This pitch is flat, flat, flat.

Match odds
The draw is the favourite at [2.22] and we are sure that it will trade sub [2.00] at some stage during the contest. If the pitch plays as it has previously, then we could be in for a dull affair.

It is likely that both sides would settle for a draw. Pakistan, who have made no secret of attempting to bore England into submission, will happily bat for days while the tourists will just be keen to get a foothold in the series.

England are [3.55] with Pakistan [3.7]. With Pakistan having stated their aim - and being unsure whether they are capable of back-to-back discipline in Tests - they could be an attractive lay at around those odds.

There has to be a suspicion that Pakistan are heavily reliant on Umar Gul and Saeed Ajmal and if England are able to buckle down and blunt one of those weapons then they can go much better.

Indeed, we should not forget England's record of hitting back after adversity. They are a resilient bunch who were possibly guilty of taking Pakistan lightly in Dubai, where they were beaten by ten wickets. Matt Prior, alluded to this when he said the result was a "slap in the face". A wake-up call in other words.

Top Pakistan first innings bat
We have no time for any other Pakistan willowmen aside from Younis Khan and Misbah-ul-Haq as they are the only two who have solid reputations for putting together big innings. Both could go off at around the [4.5] mark. They will also both be available at around [2.0] for a 50 in first innings.

Top England first innings bat
Forget Strauss, Pietersen and Morgan and instead settle for Jonathan Trott. He showed a semblance of form in Dubai and this sort of attritional cricket is right up his alley, too. Alastair Cook has a shout but he doesn't seem quite himself. The shot he got out to second time in the first Test was a horror. Trott is backable at around [4.5].

Recommended Bet
Lay Pakistan at [3.7]