Michael Vaughan: Hafeez to help Pakistan go 1-0 up

Pakistan v England / Michael Vaughan / 12 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Mohammad Hafeez has a cool head and a decent array of shots

"I think this is a match that will have a fair few twists and turns and should therefore interest the in-play traders. But if we’re picking a winner right here, right now, I don’t see that we can look beyond Pakistan."

England will want to bat first here and they'll want to deal with Pakistan's spinners a lot better than they did during the Tests. But going out and doing that is easier said than done and the smart money is on Pakistan going 1-0 up.

I've said already that I don't expect this ODI series to be any easier for England than the Test series was. It will be played on the same pitches, a lot of the Pakistan players will be the same and spin will still be the name of the game. You can read my thoughts ahead of the whole series here.

But the one big different element England will have to contend with is Shahid Afridi. Say what you like about him: that he's too erratic, too excitable, too much of a risk-taker or too flamboyant. But he's also one of those players who has the ability to single-handedly win a match for you. He seems to do it less and less with the bat these days, which is ironic because it was as an explosive opener that he first made his name. He' still got the potential to guide his team home with a few flashes of that huge blade of course but it's as a bowler that he does most of the damage at the moment. And just as England took their eye off the ball somewhat when facing Abdur Rehman in the Tests because they were so concerned about Saeed Ajmal, so they will have to remember that Afridi is just as capable a wicket-taker as those two. It's one of those often-used sporting clichés...but dismiss 'Boom Boom' at your peril.

There's no doubt that both sides will want to bat first. Pakistan prefer to defend totals in general in this format and England will be worried that chasing a decent score will be tough with Pakistan's army of spinners, which in addition to the three I've mentioned, will also certainly include Mohammad Hafeez and possibly Shoaib Malik, too. I think anything over 250 will be a very decent total so it's a case of having that as a target and if you can squeeze some extra runs out of the last couple of overs to get you above that, it will be seen as a big bonus.

I think this is a match that will have a fair few twists and turns and should therefore interest the in-play traders. But if we're picking a winner right here, right now, I don't see that we can look beyond Pakistan. I've already talked about the fact they have better knowledge of conditions here and have the bowlers who are better suited to these wickets but to those two factors we can also add a certain apprehension about the fact that Pakistan managed to turn losing positions into winning ones in the Tests whilst England did the opposite. So Pakistan it is at [1.78].

Picking a top England batsman is too tricky a prospect at the moment because we're unsure about who will bat where. Kevin Pietersen looks set to open and there will be those who fancy who might fancy him against a new ball from each end. But if you think he's going to be getting juicy-half volleys at medium pace to put away, think again. Not only is Umar Gul one of the most accurate opening bowlers in world cricket, but there's every chance that he will open with a spinner at the other end. Mohammad Hafeez has often done that job before or Misbah Ul-Haq may decide to go for the jugular straight up and ask Rehman or Ajmal to perform the role.

Speaking of Hafeez, he's my selection for Pakistan top batsman. He'll definitely open and that may be the best time to bat. He showed some form in the Tests and may take his time to build a good platform from which others like Afridi and Umar Akmal can then build on with some more aggressive strokes. Hafeez certainly won't be in a hurry and I can see him compiling a patient 70 which could well be enough to win this top batsman contest.

2 pts Back Pakistan to win @ [1.78]
1 pt Back Mohammad Hafeez to be Pakistan top batsman @ [5.0]