Michael Vaughan: Advantage Pakistan going into day three

Pakistan v England / Michael Vaughan / 26 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Mohammad Hafeez looks in good nick on a track he knows well

"I wouldn’t want to be chasing any more than 180 batting last but there’s a very good chance that England will have to, maybe considerably more than that."

The last hour and a half of day two really put the brakes on England's progress and facing Saeed Ajmal isn't going to get any easier. Batting last on this pitch may be like playing on a minefield and that means Pakistan are curently in control, says Michael Vaughan.

That last hour-and-a-half of play has deeply damaged England's chances of winning this Test. Not just because they lost four wickets but more importantly because Alastair Cook and Jonathan Trott were two of them. They were well set and are just the sort of patient and resolute batsmen that you want in these circumstances. Players who can bat for long periods of time and who play each delivery on its merits. The added problem with them having got out is that Saeed Ajmal isn't an easy bowler to face when you're new at the crease. He's not particularly easy to face even when you're on 80! Ian Bell is struggling to pick him and both Kevin Pietersen and Eoin Morgan got out to him already. The only good news is that the close of play came when it did. If England been out there for another 45 minutes, there was a real chance of them having being bowled out.

Still, tomorrow is another day and Ian Bell and Matt Prior will start the day with a plan as to how to play Ajmal and what they're setting themselves as small targets for each passage of play. In terms of the bigger picture, if England can get to 300 they'll be very much in control of this Test but that seems a long way away at the moment. They'll need someone to get a good half-century and let the others play shots around him. That's big responsibility on the shoulders of Bell and Matt Prior but they're both good enough to make a decent score here.

A few hours earlier it was very much first blood England as they mopped up the tail quickly to give themselves a great chance. Monty Panesar got through a lot of work, bowling 33 overs and doing a great job of tying up an end but he'll need to take a few wickets in the second innings if he's going to justify his selection. For what it's worth though, I think England made the right choice in including Panesar and this is a great chance for the Sussex spinner to try and remind the selectors that he's still got a big role to play in the Test team. In terms of the seamers, Jimmy Anderson and Stuart Broad were both superb early on today and just seem to get better and better each time I see them play.

So what's the bet going into day three? Those who followed my pre-match advice of laying the draw will be sitting pretty right now because we can pretty much rule that out. But if you're having your first wager of the match, at the current prices we have to go with Pakistan at [2.54]. Let's not forget that it's not inconceivable that they take a lead into England's second innings. Sorry for bringing him up again but, when Ajmal gets going, he can take three or four wickets in as many overs.

We're still a little bit unsure about Pakistan's batting line-up because there are quite a few players who we haven't seen much of in trying circumstances. But experienced campaigners Younis Khan and Misbah Ul Haq won't panic and Mohammad Hafeez is looking a far better player than he was a couple of years ago when he toured England. Of these three, it's actually Hafeez ([5.0]) that I fancy to top score in Pakistan's second innings. The start of the innings (when the ball is still hard) may actually be the best time to bat and he's looked in good form, playing positively and knowing what his scoring areas are.

I wouldn't want to be chasing any more than 180 batting last but there's a very good chance that England will have to, maybe considerably more than that. I spoke before the series about these pitches out here turning square on days four and five and that will test England's batting line-up to the extreme.

2 pts Back Pakistan to win @ [2.54]
1 pt back Mohammad Hafeez to be Pakistan second innings top batsman @ [5.0]

No-one managed to correctly predict the number of runs scored on day two in my Michael Vaughan Run Chase game so we have a rollover on day three, with £1000 up for grabs.

Click here to play ahead of tomorrow's action.