Pakistan v England / Michael Vaughan / 18 January 2012 /

The England batsmen must learn to deal with the spin of Saeed Ajmal if they're to avoid defeat in this Test and the remainder of the series. But this First Test isn't over just yet and here's how you can still make a profit from it...

I'm afraid to say the First Test has gone pretty much as predicted in my preview of it. I say afraid because as an ex-England captain, seeing my team getting skittled out for 192 in the first innings isn't exactly what I wanted to see happening. Still, I'm here on Betting.Betfair as an analyst and tipster rather than as a fan so hopefully you will have followed my advice of backing Pakistan at [3.9] with a view to laying tem off at a shorter price in-play.

Two days of cricket must lead us to one extremely obvious conclusion: Saaed Ajmal is not only the key to this Test, he's likely to be the most important man throughout the whole series. If England can't handle him they'll lose this Test and conceivably one or two more. The fact they've found the spinner so hard to face doesn't come as too much of a surprise, though.

In Australia they didn't have to face a champion spinner and when India came to England the best the tourists had to offer was an over-the-hill Harbhajan Singh. Sri Lanka came to town for the first time in a decade-an-a-half without Muttiah Muralitharan in the side. And not only have they not faced 'mystery' spinners but they haven't actually played much cricket in the sub-continent either. And we saw what happened when they did, during the ODI series in India at the back end of last year, which was very much a case of trial by spin for at least 20 overs. OK, Test cricket is a completely different game and the UAE pitches are only similar to those in the sub-continent. But the point still stands that England are far from comfortable from playing a spinner, who possesses numerous different deliveries in his armoury, on a slow pitch.

The only way the England batsmen are going to be able to handle Ajmal is by spending time at the crease. Lots of it. The more deliveries of his they face the more they'll get used to him and the easier they'll find it to score runs off him. Even if they end up losing this Test it's imperative that the top order hangs around for long enough to work him out.

As for this Test, a lead of 96 runs is a big advantage and that explains Pakistan's price of [1.67]. With three more wickets in hand they might add 30 or 40 more runs and England will bat again knowing they're under serious pressure. They'll then have to score between 275-300 and make a game of it by giving Pakistan something to chase. That sort of total seems a long way away but England haven't got to number one in the world by throwing in the towel. They've done it by getting themselves out of holes. Sometimes by skill, sometimes by sheer gritty determination. They'll need plenty of the latter right now.

How then do we approach the betting on the match odds market? Well for starters we can take the draw ([5.4]) out of the equation. Too many wickets have fallen already and this pitch will only deteriorate so we're not getting a stalemate. The best way to approach things is to back-to-lay England. There's not much batting left to come in this Pakistan line-up and England could mop up this tail very quickly. Doing that would see England's price come in, as would getting off to a good start in the second innings. Neither are inconceivable and I'd be very surprised if Strauss and co don't drop below [4.0] at some stage so a trade on England's price is the way to approach this.

Back England at [4.8], lay off at [4.0].

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