Pakistan v England / Ed Hawkins / 15 January 2012 /

Ed Hawkins previews the first Test of three, which starts on Tuesday, and suggests it could be slow going early on

Pakistan
Pakistan beat Sri Lanka in a Test in Dubai in October last year, employing two spinners Saeed Ajmal and Abdul Rehman. They are likely to use the same ploy against England batsmen, regarded as weak on the Asian spin pitches.

Ajmal insists he has a plan for each England batsman and claims to have invented a new ball called the "teesra". England are unlikely to be worried. An off spinner has three deliveries - one that spins away, one that spins in and one that goes straight on and it doesn't matter what you call them.

There are likely to be nerves about betting Pakistan considering last year's spot-fixing trial, during which Salman Butt, Mohhamad Amir and Mohammad Asif were jailed. Pakistan's squad still has paceman Wahab Riaz, Umar Akmal and Imran Farhat despite their names being mentioned by Mazher Majeed, the corrupt agent, during the fixing trial.

England
It hasn't been an easy start to the tour for England. They have lost Tim Bresnan, the allrounder, to injury and there have been some unconvincing batting displays in the warm-ups.

Indeed, there are worries about the form of Kevin Pietersen and Eoin Morgan. Both are short of runs while Pietersen has twice fallen to spin, suggesting a serious malaise.

England's quandary is whether to pick two spinners. Monty Panesar has been among the wickets but most came on a surface which was six days old while Graeme Swann has shrugged off a thigh problem.

It is probable that England will stick to a tried and trusted four-man attack. James Anderson and Stuart Broad will be joined by Steven Finn or Chris Tremlett.

Venue and conditions
The Dubai International Cricket Stadium has hosted two Test matches, one result and one draw. Pakistan beat Sri Lanka by nine wickets in October but previous to that they met South Africa on a bland surface. From the two matches it takes an average of 140 to take 10 wickets. Ajmal and Rehman, the two spinners, have taken 19 of the 56 wickets to fall.

Match odds
The draw at [2.62] offers a solid back-to-lay advantage as we are sure that it will trade below even money at some point during proceedings.

The Dubai wicket can be a bit of a road, in keeping with traditional Asian conditions. It is more likely to contract sharper if England bat first as their often solid batting line-up can grind down bowling units. We are not so sure about Pakistan, who will rely heavily on Misbah-ul-Haq and Younis Khan.

Still, Misbah has said he is keen to frustrate England and any ponderous play will aid our wager.

England are [2.70] for victory with Pakistan [3.90]. Undoubtedly conditions are against England - they have not won a series in Asia since the 2000-01 season in Sri Lanka - but they have the discipline and ability to end that sequence, as discussed in our series preview.

Top Pakistan batsman

Azhar Ali, the 26-year-old right-hander, is Pakistan's top runscorer on this ground. He has 248 runs in two matches. He is likely to go off at around [6.50] for top honours. Younis Khan, with 221, is next best and he enjoys favourite status at around [4.50]. Both men will be around [2.00] to score a 50 in the first innings.

Top England batsman

We will give Pietersen a swerve thanks to his dodgy form in the warm-ups and instead fret over which obdurate sort is best deserving of support: Alastair Cook or Jonathan Trott. Both men have the mental application required to shine on these pitches, although Cook will be more vulnerable against a new ball first up. Both should be priced at around [4.50].

Recommended bet

Back to lay the draw @ [2.62]

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