2nd ODI Betting Pakistan v England: Toss is key

Pakistan v England / Ed Hawkins / 14 February 2012 / 1 Comments

"Of course, England are unbalanced and vulnerable but we do not expect them to admit that."

Ed Hawkins advises punters to wait until the coin flip before getting involved for game two in Abu Dhabi on Wednesday

Pakistan v England, 11:00, Live on Sky Sports 1

Pakistan

It would be an absolute mystery how a team could be so dominant in the Test series and then be so utterly woeful in the following one-day international had that team not been Pakistan; a depressingly predictable performance from Misbah-ul-Haq's team in Abu Dhabi.

Possible changes could include Azhar Ali, the star of the Test series, coming in for Shoaib Malik, whose dreadful shot when dismissed by Samit Patel was indicative of a man who looks well worth pensioning off. Wahab Riaz's place could be in jeopardy, too following some expensive overs. Junaid Khan could get the nod.

England

A 130-run victory suggests England have got their XI right and they are certain to stick with the same personnel.

Of course, they are unbalanced and vulnerable but we do not expect them to admit that. Kevin Pietersen will continue in the opening berth despite a selfish innings. The point of the promotion is to make use of the fielding restrictions, not total a strike rate of 38.

Likewise Craig Kieswetter is a fish out of water at No 6, a specialist role which requires careful shot selection, rotation of the strike and finding the gaps. Kieswetter is a blaster used to having two fielders out when he bats.

To that end the only potential switch is Kieswetter for Jos Buttler, the Somerset lad that England have high hopes for.

Venue and conditions

In the preview for the first one-day international we reported how there was no discernible toss bias under lights. But those statistics hid the potential for swing. There was plenty of it around under lights and England, in particular the four-wicket Steven Finn, were able to exploit that.

Match odds

Pakistan retain favourite status at [1.79] with England [2.24]. Despite maintaining belief in the 'home' side we have to recognise the importance of the toss in matches at Sheikh Zayed Stadium and for that reason the gulf is too large.

It should not be forgotten that although England have a weakness against spin, Pakistan have one against seam and swing and both sides can look equally foolish when they play in hostile conditions.

To that end the toss would appear crucial. If Pakistan were able to bat first, they are capable of posting a total of around 250 and then squeezing in the middle overs after their swing bowlers - and Umar Gul is one of the best around - have removed top-order batsmen with the new ball.

Indeed, England's unbalanced batting order - where Kieswetter could be faced with a rising run rate and spinners from both ends - makes then equally vulnerable. The best advice would be to back the side batting first (Weds 10:30 update: England have won the toss and will bat first).

Top Pakistan batsman

Shahid Afridi managed honours last time under the auspices of Any Other but he is likely to be promoted to individual billing and could go off at around [6.00]. Otherwise, we do not fancy either Pakistan opener, Mohammad Hafeez and Imran Farhat. On first glance they look to have a healthy partnership, averaging just shy of 40 for the first wicket during their time together. But more in-depth analysis (filtering matches against only the Test nations) sees that figure drop to 29. Lay them for 30 or more at around [2.50].

Top England batsman

We'll say no thanks to Pietersen at around [4.50] and Eoin Morgan at bigger prices. Both could be worth laying for a 50. Alastair Cook, following his rather splendid century, showed Pietersen how to do it and deserves favourite status.

Recommended bet

Lay Pakistan opening partnership for 30 runs or more at [2.50]

Comments (1)

1. ZAIN SHah | 15 February 2012

   I saw first one day. And noted few week points in Pk side . In my view pakistani captin is not utilizing his players at there need.
   Afridi should come at no.5 when Pk chesing
   and misbha should bat at.6
   they have frgoten that Afridi can bat.
   AFRIDI's bating is bonus for Pk. So use ur bonus . When ur wondring. Dont wast ur bonus .
   Hope Pk will come back in series. But dont understimate Eng