ODI preview / Ed Hawkins / 02 April 2009 / Leave a comment

A second lucky escape for England courtesy of Duckworth/Lewis has set up a thrilling finale for the fifth and final ODI. Ed Hawkins talks us through the facts, the stats and the bets.

We are shifting uncomfortably in our seats ahead of the deciding one-day international between West Indies and England in St Lucia on Friday as the incalculable factor of player disquiet makes it squeaky bum time.

The contract dispute between the West Indies players and their cricket board grumbles on and although it is supposed to be resolved in time for the series finale, one feels the need to take a crash course in anthropology to work out how it might have affected the hosts.

They are yet to be paid for their series work and while you and I might balk at the prospect of putting in 100 per cent graft for an 'employer' holding on to the cheque, cricketers are a funny breed.

We cannot be sure whether West Indies will be distracted or completely focused. The best advice is to try to ignore the row completely and concentrate on the respective teams' strengths. That is exactly what the match odds market has done. West Indies are [1.93] and England [2.00].

Those odds would be about fair given that England's two victories have come with caveats. In the first match John Dyson handed victory to them on a plate after getting his sums wrong and then last time out in Bridgetown, rain reduced a tricky target to a more manageable size.

If West Indies are slightly downcast, England are as buoyant as a side can be that has won only twice all winter and are already thinking of the departure lounge. That means they should be at their most content and ... wait ... stop ... we're theorising again.

Let's deal with facts. Specifically how the teams fare when coming into the last match of a one-day series with scores level. Who does the pressure get to? Neither really with West Indies winning three from their last five and England losing three from the same number. If an edge is to be found it is with West Indies who nicked a series from under the noses of England in the last match at Trent Bridge in 2007 with the odd win in three.

Likewise the hosts sneak it on ground form. Admittedly West Indies have not exactly spanked all comers to the Beausejour stadium - they have won five from eight, including two against the visitors.

Three times England played on the ground in the 2007 World Cup and they managed to embarrass themselves each time, no mean feat with Kenya and Canada two of the opponents.
Against Kenya they wobbled at 52-2 chasing 177 and against Canada they were given a scare after they laboured to 279-6. The Maple Leaf refused to shake and it was England who were looking perturbed as Canada made it to 228-7.

They were performances which damned England's campaign before it had really begun and sure enough they were dispatched with ease by New Zealand at the venue. England made only 209 and despite reducing the Kiwis to 72-4, they were still beaten by six wickets.

From those matches it was clear that batsmen have to work hard for their runs on a surface which can be sluggish or take seam and swing from the new ball. It is a recipe which England have historically struggled to digest, most recently in the Twenty20 international and in the second game of this series in Guyana.

In the 16 matches played at the ground, the first-innings average is 247 and although New Zealand twice broke the 300 barrier against Kenya and Canada (remember how England fared against those sides), only Pakistan have reached such a total against one of the world's eight superpowers.

When prices become available it could pay to lay 275 runs or more especially with scattered showers forecast increasing the possibility of overs being reduced.

Our final stat is a quirky one in that in the 16 second-innings at the Beausejour, the No.1 batsman has top-scored six times and the No.4 batsman has top-scored six times. It is an odd one that but might just help you to sit back and relax instead of trying to work out what is going on in the heads of the players.