The Betfair Contrarian: Why England will beat India in the ODI Series

ODI preview / The Betfair Contrarian / 12 November 2008 / Leave a Comment

The Betfair Contrarian is at it again, this time predicting that [3.35] underdogs England will beat India in the upcoming ODI Series. And after correctly predicting that England would lose the Stanford Twenty for 20 match, he's in a rich vein of cricket tipping form.

The Betfair Contrarian: Why England will win the ODI Series against India

The Contrarian hasn't had much time for the England cricket team recently, which is why he correctly predicted that they would collapse in the Stanford Series and go home as broke as they came. After being bowled out for just 98 in a humiliating loss to the Mumbai Cricket Association XI in a warm-up match last Tuesday, England are now [3.35] to win their seven-match ODI series against India. However, where others see crisis, the Contrarian sees opportunity, and having already backed Kevin Pietersen's side to win the Ashes next year, he is also confident they will triumph over India. Here's why:

England beat India last year

England's last seven-match one day international series against India came little over a year ago and on that occasion England were 4-3 victors. Even more impressively, considering India arrived on the back of series victories over the West Indies, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and South Africa (Future Cup) was the fact that England never once fell behind, winning three of the first four encounters to take control of the series.

There has been an immense improvement under Pietersen

Ignoring the abandoned clashes with Scotland and South Africa (rain), England have won all four of their List A one day internationals since Kevin Pietersen's appointment as full-time captain in early August. Prior to that England had won just two of their ten ODI's in 2008 despite the fact their opponents in those games, New Zealand, were not ranked as highly as the South Africa side that Pietersen went on to conquer.

New captains fare well against India

England's last two permanent one-day captains Michael Vaughan and Paul Collingwood were victorious in their first one day international series against India, while Vaughan's predecessor Nasser Hussain led a comeback to salvage a 3-3 draw from a series that England were trailing 3-1 the first time he played India after taking over as captain. Collingwood had previously lost his first series as one day captain at home to the West Indies, who had won just one of their last six ODIs, but managed to turn things around to beat India 4-3 and Pietersen will hope that the deflation of expectations that followed the unexpected loss to the Mumbai XI earlier this week will help aid a similar turnaround.

India's home record against England is overstated

A lot has been made of the fact England haven't won a one day series in India since 1985. Less frequently mentioned is the fact that India's success two years ago was their first home series win against England since 1982. The reason England have gone so long without a win in India is because there have only been three one-on-one series there since England's 4-1 success 23 years ago, and two of those finished 3-3. Therefore the aggregate ODI score from England's last four series in India is 12-11 to the hosts which hardly provides proof of a massive home advantage.

India haven't won much at home recently anyway

India have won only five of their last twelve home ODIs which isn't a very strong record considering England have won more away ODIs over that same span of games, with six victories from their last twelve matches abroad.

India lose steam badly in part two of the year

Since the start of 2006, India have a significantly worse record in the second half of the year than in the first six months. They lost 32% of their games between January and June (16 out of 50 - without including matches that were either cancelled or abandoned) while being defeated in 54% (22 out of 41) of their games from July onwards.