Stats suggest success for Smith's Saffers

ODI preview / Ed Hawkins / 15 October 2007 / Leave a Comment

The Racing Post's Ed Hawkins explains why South Africa are Pakistan's bogey team and how you can cash in

A record of nine defeats in their last 13 one-day matches in Asia does not bode well for South Africa when their five-game one-day series against Pakistan begins in Lahore on Thursday.

That is not a particularly surprising statistic given the huge differences between the green, seam-friendly pitches of the Rainbow Nation to the dry and dusty spin sorted surfaces of Asia.

One would expect the South African batsmen to find conditions completely alien and as historically they do not play turn well - or for that matter possess a world class twirler of their own - one could be forgiven for thinking they would suffer defeat.

Burgeoning Betfair prices suggest otherwise with Pakistan favourites at 2 and the Proteas 1.51. Almost certainly those odds have been heavily influenced by South Africa's recent Test series win over Pakistan.

But perhaps we are not giving credit where it is due. Statistics are often used like a drunk uses a lamp post, for support rather than illumination. And there is no better example of those wise words than the 'South Africa slump in Asia' line.

Dig a little deeper and you will discover that South Africa are Pakistan's bogey team in the limited-overs game, something which goes against all most cricket logic.

Admittedly South Africa have played only one two-team series in Pakistan in 2003 but that was won 3-2. Previous to that South Africa have played five times in the country, winning twice.

In all conditions, South Africa have been triumphant in an astonishing seven of the last eight meet ups and have suffered consecutive defeats in a series against Pakistan only twice since 1994.

And just to reinforce their dominance, they have never lost a two-team series against Pakistan. They were victorious 3-1 in 06/07, 3-2 in 03/04 and 4-1 in 02/03.

Pakistan's cause will not be helped by the loss of Inzamam-ul-Haq, one of their greatest batsmen. Inzamam retired from one-day cricket after the World Cup and last week bowed out of the Test game, too.
Without the big man, Pakistan have struggled, particularly against South Africa.

On the face of it a record of 14 victories in their last 30 against all opposition without Inzy does not look too bad. But, again, that is only scratching the surface. Six of those successes came against minnow nations.

When Inzamam has been missing against South Africa, Pakistan have really been exposed. They have won only four of their last ten, including a 124-run beating in Mohali last time out in 2006.
With Inzamam gone, there will be much focus on how the Pakistan batting copes and there could be some value around on top-bat markets.

Mohammad Yousuf and Younis Khan will attract most of the backing but the man to get with could be Shoaib Malik, the skipper.

Shoaib is one of the most underrated willowmen in the world. In his last five limited-overs series for Pakistan, Malik has finished outside the top three Pakistan runscorers only once and in his first series as captain against Sri Lanka in May he came top of the pile with 117 runs.

An average of 40 against South Africa boosts his credentials further. Indeed, he finished as Pakistan's second highest runscorer with 155 when the sides last met.

For South Africa Jacques Kallis will be a worthy favourite to outscore his team-mates over the course of an innings. He has a whopping 494 runs in the three matches on tour already thanks to the sluggish surfaces suiting his patient approach perfectly.