Second ODI Preview: South Africa favourites to strike back

ODI preview / Ed Hawkins / 25 August 2008 / Leave a Comment

Greame Smith and co have a formidable record in recent One Day Internationals and they are short priced favourites on a ground which favours batting second.

An enormous amount of time and effort down the years has gone into researching what effect the toss has on one-day internationals. Of course in the five-day arena it is hugely important but statisticians have revealed it is generally meaningless in the shorter version.

There is plenty of evidence to suggest that it matters not a jot whether teams are batting first or bowling first. Punters who reckoned they had found an edge in the first one-day international between England and South Africa at Headingley on Friday would probably agree.

With ten of the previous 11 matches at the venue won by the side batting second, South Africa's price dipped when England decided to take on the trend by batting first. Instead of bucking it, they looked to be heading for defeat when Herschelle Gibbs and Jacques Kallis were going well until, oddly, the visitors imploded.

Tuesday's second one-day international at Trent Bridge offers another test for those who believe that historic toss results count. Seven of the last 12 matches at the Nottingham venue have been won by the side batting second, a sequence that stretches back ten years.

England, surprising leaders in a series that they were expected to struggle in because of South Africa's record of only one loss in their last 16 two-team series, are [2.10] to remain in front with four games left. South Africa, perhaps highlighting their strength, are as short as [2.20].

Indeed, Graeme Smith's men are favourites at [1.80] to win in Nottingham with England [2.22]. The odds are almost identical to how the market saw game one before the toss at Leeds.
If that first match has damaged your confidence in the formbook and South Africa, there are a couple of markets which could offer some value.

Over the last ten years, runscoring at Trent Bridge has been easy going at Trent Bridge and there seems no reason why that should not continue, particularly with England's batsmen in decent touch. The average first-innings score in that period is 237, which suggests that it could be worth backing whichever side bats first to score 225 runs or more when prices become available on the first-innings runs market on Betfair.

And if you want to be really fancy with your crystal-ball gazing, you could have that bet once the first wicket has fallen because there is reason to believe that the new ball could swing first up.
Since redevelopment at Trent Bridge, county players have reported more swing than ever before at the famous old ground. Some claim it is because the impressive Fox Road Stand has created a more enclosed atmosphere, trapping moisture and humidity and allowing the ball to bend more.

These views are backed up by recent statistics which show how opening batsmen have not lasted very long at the crease. The average opening partnership in the last four matches (not including England's one-sided match against no-hopers Bangladesh in 2005) is only 25. Only three times has a pair put on more than 37.

With that in mind South Africa could be worth taking on at [1.76] for the highest opening partnership. Graeme Smith and Gibbs will be less circumspect that Matt Prior and Ian Bell first up, and their recklessness could be ill-advised if the ball starts to bend.

At Headingley, it was noticeable how Smith and Gibbs went off considerably quicker that England at the start of an innings. It gives them a big advantage over the series but they could just be too short on this market.