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Pressure on Shoaib Malik, but he can deal with it

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Cricket expert Andrew Hughes previews Shoiab Malik's debut as ODI captain as they take on South Africa

It has become a cricketing truism to say that Pakistan are rebuilding. They've had the builders in for so long now no one can remember what the thing was supposed to look like, the plans are covered in red ink and there's a new architect every six months.

The retirement of Inzamam amounts to the removal of a large section of scaffolding and what remains looks rather rickety. Indeed, like England during the nineties, a whole generation of Pakistani cricketers are classed as 'fringe' players, in and out of the side at a selectoral whim. The organised chaos of Pakistani cricket administration does not make for a solid foundation.

Shoaib Malik is learning the hard way. A dispiriting defeat to South Africa, who dominated the two match Test series from first to last was marked by some tactical errors and tetchy press conferences. The heat is on for the young captain with MohammadYousuf and Younis Khan poised as potential leaders.

Which is why the one-day series starting on Thursday at the Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore could not have come at a better time and offers us an excellent opportunity to back the home side.

Pakistan are a young team who are much more effective at shorter versions of the game, as shown in the Twenty20 World Championship. Shoaib has already proven to be a good limited overs captain, proactive in manipulating his field and adept at marshalling a run chase. And the stats show that taking on Pakistan in their own backyard is a tough task. Since 2000, they have won 62% of such matches played at home and at the Gaddaffi Stadium, a similar 63%.

Fair enough, you might say, but don't the stats show something similar for the Tests and didn't South Africa defy them? True, but the main reason that Pakistan were beaten there was their persistence with a spin-orientated strategy. Incredibly Mohammed Asif bowled a total of 10 of the 199 overs that Pakistan were in the field in the second innings of both matches. You can be sure Asif and Umar Gul will get their full ten on Thursday. They are Pakistan's best bowlers, highly effective in the Twenty20 World Championship and have formed a dangerous partnership. They will be backed up by another seamer, the tricky to read Tanvir, as well as part time spinners Shahid Afridi, Shoaib and possibly Mohammed Hafeez, giving them a more flexible and balanced bowling attack.

This will be vital because the Gaddafi Stadium is historically a batsman's pitch. The test match track was hard and true, offering some bounce and no lateral movement. The stats confirm this impression, with the average one day team score twenty runs higher here than the Pakistan average. Curiously, for day night games the traditional disadvantage of batting second is reversed, with 58% of the sides that did so triumphing. That suggests two things: that any life in the pitch is confined to the early overs and that the ball doesn't swing under the lights. In such circumstances, South Africa's seam bowling dominated attack could struggle to keep the runs down. Their lack of slower options for the middle overs may prove costly.

Finally, it shouldn't be forgotten that a number of the South Africans, namely Duminy, Philander, Langeveldt, Kemp, Morkel and Botha have never played in Pakistan and the last four named will only be joining the squad this week. They will inevitably require time to adjust and I would expect at least three of them to figure in the first match.

I would make Pakistan solid favourites for Thursday's match and I'd be happy to be backing them at evens, so I was delighted to see they are 2.12 on Betfair for the opener. If there are any markets for top batsmen, for South Africa, look no further than Jacques Kallis who is in blistering form and worth backing at 4.5 or above. For Pakistan, Shoaib Malik and wicketkeeper Kamran Akmal, who both have a brace of one-day centuries to their name on this ground are likely to be decent prices. Alternatively, if neither are listed in their own right, it might be worth considering the 'any other batsman' option as this will include them both at likely odds of 6.0 or higher.

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