ODI preview / Ed Hawkins / 07 December 2011 / 1

Ed Hawkins says punters should keep faith with the tourists for the fourth game of five in Indore tomorrow

India
Despite a 2-1 lead all does not seem right in the home camp. They would have expected to be far more dominant against what is, on paper at least, a weak Windies outfit. But each of the three games have been too close for comfort and it was no surprise that the tourists managed to break their duck in Ahmedabad.

India's problems centre around the dreadful form of their three gun batsmen - Virender Sehwag, Gautam Gambhir and Suresh Raina. Sehwag and Gambhir recorded ducks last time out and average just 15 and five respectively in the series. Raina, ordinarily so reliable, has seven runs in three innings.

Irfan Pathan, the all-rounder, has been recalled to the squad for the first time in two years and is expected to play. Umesh Yadav, however, is out having left to fly to Australia to get acclimatised for the upcoming tour. His place should go to Varun Aaron, the fast bowler who impressed against England.

West Indies
West Indies have suffered a severe blow with the news that Darren Bravo, their most impressive batsmen on the tour (99 runs in three ODI innings), is out for the remainder of the series with a hamstring injury. Bravo pulled up when on 26 in Ahmedabad and he will not recover in time. His place will go to either Adrian Barath or Kieron Powell. Still, with Ravi Rampaul, who hit 86 earlier in the contest, batting at number nine the Windies have depth.

Venue and conditions
There has never been a day-night international played at the Holkar Stadum in Indore. The reason for that is probably because of the heavy dew they get in this region of Madhya Pradesh. The groundsman is counting on an overdose of the chemical which attempts to negate the impact of the night-time moisture. Another preventative measure (apparently) is keeping the outfield grass long so we should not expect to see the ball scorching across the turf.

In the two ODIs played at the ground both were won by India - against England. The first innings scores on each occasion were 288 and 292 so the surface looks to be a healthy one. The last of those games was played in 2008. Expect the team that wins the toss to field first.

Match odds
For our last preview we advised a back-to-lay of the West Indies and it paid off handsomely. We see no reason why the same ploy cannot work again. With India prohibitive at [1.42], the Windies appeal at [3.35] for a trade. Despite their reputation they have proved ultra-reliable in being competitive to see their odds forced down into favourite status.

In Ahmedabad for the third one-day international we were able to lay off at around [1.75] when they took the third India wicket. That was a bonus as we would have expected to get closer to [2.00].

The missing piece in the jigsaw for the West Indies could be Sunil Narine, the offspinner. He gave West Indies control and a wicket threat, something they had lacked from a twirler previously. Narine took two for 34 off his ten overs and, according to the captain, Darren Sammy, "kept building pressure". Even if he goes at around 4.5 an over this time Narine will still be capable of keeping India in check, and that is good news for traders.

Top India batsman
It would be folly to get involved with Sehwag, Gambhir or Raina given their dreadful records even if the latter two both have half centuries in ODIs on this ground. The value lies with form men Rohit Sharma (257 runs) and Virat Kohli (140). Thanks to the stellar reputations of the funk three it might be possible to get prices at around [6.00] for either Kohli or Sharma. Sharma has hit 514 runs against West Indies in 2011 - the highest by anyone against them in a calendar year.

Top West Indies batsman
After Bravo, Lendl Simmons is West Indies' best batsman with 98 runs followed by Rampaul (86) and Kieron Pollard (77). Simmons will go off around [6.0] and Pollard at [7.0]. Watch out for Powell, the new face. he replaced the injured Shiv Chanderpaul in the Tests and acquitted himself well, scoring 106 runs in two matches. He has shown he has what it takes to shine on alien surfaces.

Back-to-lay West Indies @ [3.35]

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1. pawan | 08 December 2011

   you have gone completly wrong with this one,i'm sorry.

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