One Day Series Betting: Could England strike back at Lord's?

ODI preview / Andrew Hughes / 05 September 2009 / Leave a Comment

Can Ravi lead England to a series-levelling victory?

"If conditions do offer something for swing bowlers, then James Anderson and Ryan Sidebottom will be a much bigger threat than they were south of the river."

It was first blood to Australia in a scrappy Oval encounter. Andrew Hughes briefs us on what we can expect at Lord's for the second One Day International

Team News

England may consider resting a spinner at Lord's and that will give them the option of playing an extra batsman, presumably Eoin Morgan, who will be playing on his home ground. If they do rest one of their spinners, it might well be Graeme Swann who misses out in favour of the increasingly impressive Adil Rashid. Australia are likely to be unchanged, although the possibility of swing-friendly conditions might lead them to consider drafting in Ben Hilfenhaus. The experiment of opening with wicket keeper Tim Paine will probably continue, at least for one game.

Venue and conditions

Lord's is usually a good batting pitch but this year has had a little more bounce in it than usual. Combine the likelihood of a little September dew to freshen the surface and the forecasted cloud cover and it would be reasonable to conclude that swing and seam bowlers will get some joy at the headquarters of cricket. With batting likely to be at its hardest early on, you might want to wait until after the toss before getting involved.

Match Odds

On paper, the two teams are reasonably well matched, but although England managed to keep themselves in the match until the last ball at the Oval, Australia had the better of the game. Their fielding was particularly sharp and they got their bowling tactics spot on for the stodgy Oval surface, taking the pace off the ball and mixing it up well to bog down England's run chase. The Aussies were clear favourites for that first game and victory at the Oval has pushed their odds for a second game win in to [1.67]

However, Lord's may be a different story. If conditions do offer something for swing bowlers, then James Anderson and Ryan Sidebottom will be a much bigger threat than they were south of the river. And whilst Mitchell Johnson may enjoy any extra bounce Lord's has to offer, he has already struggled with the slope here once this summer. It should also be remembered that England's run chase was hampered by some silly dismissals (step forward Mr Shah and Mr Wright) which you assume will not be repeated. At [2.44] England represent a tempting proposition on their own patch.

Top Batsman

For Australia, six of the top seven looked in reasonable nick at the Oval and all are worth considering. However, I'm slightly worried about Shane Watson's ability to handle the swinging ball in the opening overs and the same goes for Cameron White. You can never ignore Michael Clarke, who has already dazzled spectators at Lord's once this summer and is another batsman who should prefer the ball coming onto the bat. However, the stand-in Australian captain is unlikely to be higher than [4.5] and instead, I like the look of Callum Ferguson, who top scored at the Oval and has the highest one day international average of this current squad. He should be backed at anything above [5.0]

If you fancy an England top-order collapse then either Luke Wright or Adil Rashid look a decent bet to top score as the flatter Lord's pitch should suit their lusty hitting more than the Oval did. But six or seven is not the best place from which to top score. Owais Shah, providing he remembers where his stumps are, is usually a reliable betting proposition in this format and is on his home patch. But now that he has a score on the board, this could be the time to return to the talented Ravi Bopara who is a potential match winner and should be backed at [5.0] or higher.

Selected Market

Betfair offer a number of interesting match betting markets and of the various match-ups for this game, the one that catches the eye is Shane Watson versus Cameron White. White is in good touch so far this tour and whilst his style may be a little more agricultural than Watson's, in terms of batting effectiveness there isn't that much to choose between them. You can back White to outscore Watson at [2.2]