One Day International Betting: Back India to strike first

ODI preview / Andrew Hughes / 04 February 2012 /

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Sehwag got his eye in on Friday

"If India can cope with the pace of Brett Lee and Ryan Harris, they should be able to pile up a decent score in batting conditions that won’t test their vulnerability against lateral movement or bounce."

After a three year hiatus, the Commonwealth Bank Series is back and Andrew Hughes thinks India have what it takes to win the opener.

February 5, Australia v India, MCG, Live on Sky Sports 3, 03:20 GMT

Team News
Wicket-keeper Matthew Wade will probably open along with David Warner, leaving a settled middle-order of Ricky Ponting, David Hussey and Michael Clarke. Daniel Christian will be the preferred all-rounder and Mitchell Starc will probably get the nod ahead of the other fast bowler in the squad, Clint McKay

India welcome back Sachin Tendulkar for his first limited overs international since the World Cup and Zaheer Khan is back to lead the bowling. Ravichandran Ashwin will be the specialist spin bowling preference rather than Ravindra Jadeja with Irfan Pathan likely to beat Umesh Yadav and Vinay Kumar to the third seamer's position.

Venue and Conditions
The MCG is not a high-scoring venue and only one team in the last ten ODIs has passed 300 there. On the evidence of Friday's Twenty20, runs will not flow easily and a total of anything around 260 could be competitive. Rain is likely at some point on Sunday afternoon and we could be in Duckworth Lewis territory, giving the team batting second a slight advantage. It is also worth noting Australia's comparatively poor record at the ground, with just four wins from the last ten games.

Match Odds
India may have lost their way in the five-day game, but they are still ODI world champions. Their two Twenty20 games should have blown away the cobwebs and whilst their Test line-up is looking a bit creaky these days, in the shorter formats, they benefit from a youthful middle order, not least in the field where MS Dhoni won't have to hide the likes of Rahul Dravid and VVS Laxman.

Australia shouldn't be underestimated on their home patch and they are the ICC's top-ranked ODI team, but their side has one or two more unproven players in it than their opponents. If India can cope with the pace of Brett Lee and Ryan Harris, they should be able to pile up a decent score in batting conditions that won't test their vulnerability against lateral movement or bounce. At odds of [2.62] it makes sense to side with the tourists.

Top Australian Batsman
Ricky Ponting and Michael Clarke will probably take a game or two to get back into limited overs mode and David Warner didn't look at his best in the Twenty20 games so we should go for David Hussey. He's in good touch at the moment and at [6.0] or better is a solid bet to top score on his home ground.

Top Indian batsman
Gautam Gambhir and Virat Kohli looked to be hitting form in the second Twenty20 game on Friday and somewhat ominously for Australia, so did Virender Sehwag. He scored a rapid 23 including India's only six and was hitting the ball pretty cleanly. At odds of [4.75] or better he's a good bet to top score for the tourists.

Featured market
With David Warner and Virender Sehwag involved, anything could happen, but the Indian openers look in better form right now and when you factor in the inexperience of Warner's opening partner, Matthew Wade, I think it's worth siding with India at [1.8] or better in the Opening Partnership market.

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