ODI preview / Andrew Hughes / 11 September 2009 / Leave a comment

Three-nil down with four to play, England head to Lord's again on Saturday for a must win game. Andrew Hughes previews the fourth One Day International.

"Australia seem happy to plod along and play ugly innings whereas the flashier England stroke players such as Ravi Bopara, Owais Shah and Matt Prior appear to lose their heads if kept quiet for too long."

Venue

Back to Lord's for the second time this series and if last Sunday's game is a guide, then we can expect a reasonable batting surface with ball coming onto bat. Brett Lee and Mitchell Johnson forced some bounce out of the pitch but there was little lateral movement and only the vaguest hint of swing to encourage James Anderson and Ryan Sidebottom. The forecast is predicting sunny weather for Saturday so the England swing duo may be in for another lean time.

Team News

Ricky Ponting is back and will return to the number three slot. The question for Australia is who should miss out? Cameron White will have to move down the order, but scores of 53, 42 and 105 make him undroppable. The other batting newcomer, Callum Ferguson is averaging 146.00 and helped steer Australia to victory at the Rose Bowl on Wednesday. Therefore, the choice will be between Mike Hussey, a nominee for ICC one day player of the year and James Hopes, probably Australia's best one day all-rounder. It might be a close call. Hussey is the senior man, but averages only 18 this series and was all at sea against Graeme Swann at this ground last Sunday.

Stuart Broad has recovered from a neck strain that caused him to miss the second and third matches. It was Broad's absence at the weekend that led England to add an extra batsman at Adil Rashid's expense, although it was not clear why, since Broad's replacement, Tim Bresnan, was at one time being touted as an all-rounder capable of covering for Andrew Flintoff in the Test team. Rashid has done nothing wrong, but is likely to miss out again as Lord's is not perceived to be a spin-friendly ground.

Match Odds

By common consent, these are two well-matched or equally mediocre teams. So why should England be 3-0 down and as high as [2.52] to win the fourth game? The failure of batsmen to turn steady starts into big scores is an obvious problem, but not a new one. Inability to accelerate, to score freely without taking huge risks has characterised our one-day cricket for a long time. It should be said that neither side has been regularly rattling the boundary boards, but Australia seem happy to plod along and play ugly innings whereas the flashier England stroke players such as Ravi Bopara, Owais Shah and Matt Prior appear to lose their heads if kept quiet for too long.

The bowlers have not been as culpable although in the absence of any swing, Sidebottom and Anderson have been predictably innocuous. They have managed just four wickets between them, which compares unfavourably with the 14 taken by Lee, Johnson and Nathan Bracken. Add in some indecision about when to take the batting powerplay and the return of some sloppy fielding habits and England's parlous position in this series becomes explicable. Momentum is everything in these one-day series, as South Africa discovered this time last year and Australia are in the mood for a whitewash. You can back the rampant Aussies at [1.64]

Top Batsman

Australia's batting approach has been slow and steady so a quick-scoring stroke maker in form is the ideal betting vehicle for the top batsman market. Cameron White has fitted the bill thus far but he is likely to drop down the order and there is probably no need to look at anyone other than the returning captain, Ricky Ponting at anywhere around [4.0] or better.

For England, Andrew Strauss and Paul Collingwood are more reliable than the others, but at potentially bigger odds, it might be worth giving Owais Shah another chance. He is usually reliable in this format, is on his home ground and to some extent his dismissals thus far (treading on his stumps, a silly run-out and a poor lbw decision) can be forgiven, at least from a betting point of view. He should be backed at [5.0] or higher.

Specialist Market

Since it was re-laid in 2002-03, the Lord's pitch has produced an average scoring rate in one day internationals of 4.73 runs per over which equates to a fifty over total of 236. Australia did well to amass 249 in Sunday's game but that was thanks to some late hitting from Mitchell Johnson. England got nowhere near. Lay '250 or more' in the England's total innings runs market if you can get anywhere near [2.0]

Tags: Andrew Strauss, betting on cricket, lord's betting, one-day cricket betting, Ravi Bopara, Ricky Ponting