ODI Series Betting: Bangladesh v England

ODI preview / Ed Hawkins / 01 March 2010 / Leave a Comment

Eoin Morgan is again underrated for top bat honours

Bangladesh and England meet again in Dhaka on Tuesday with the match odds suggesting a foregone conclusion for the tourists. But Ed Hawkins argues that there is still plenty for the value hunter to consider

Team news
On the face of it, there would appear no need for England to tinker with their XI following a professional and rudimentary of beating of Bangladesh in the first one-day international. A six-wicket stroll with 24 balls to spare - rarely does it get more emphatic than that.

However, the tourists would be wise not to get complacent ahead of Tuesday's second match. They can improve. For example, Ryan Sidebottom, who went at an expensive six an over, could be replaced by James Tredwell. Spin looks likely to be more effective than swing.

Bangladesh must also consider their bowling options. Shafiul Islam does not look worth a place in the team if the captain can only trust him with two overs. Rubel Hossain, who has a strike rate of a wicket every 37 balls, is a worthy new ball partner for Mashrafe Mortaza.

Pitch conditions
It is apparent that the Shere Bangla National stadium surface is slow and low. Just cast your minds back to the number of times batsmen mistimed forceful strokes on the front foot in game one. Punters must factor in the turgid nature of the strip for their wagers.
We know that shotmakers and spin bowlers are going to have mixed results. Look how Kevin Pietersen struggled and how seven of the 14 wickets to fall went to twirlers. In the previous 10 ODIs in Mirpur, spin had accounted 40% of the wickets to fall so it was some leap to 50%, the second highest ratio during the study period.

Match odds
It has not taken long for bettors to write off Bangladesh. They are as big as [6.20] to level affairs from [5.50] pre-series. England are as short as [1.18]. The day that this column recommends a price as skinny as that would be a dark one indeed.

So Bangladesh have to be the wager, whether to sensible stakes for punters who want an interest or to in-running fans. Granted the latter group are far more likely to enjoy a profit. When Bangladesh raced to 63 without loss in game one there must have been some worried big hitters around.

England, despite their dominance, are still vulnerable to a dodgy spell in a contest such as this, and that is all we need to make the [6.20] work. Whether their bowlers go round the park to Tamim Iqbal again or they repeat the mini collapse from 73-0 to 96-3, there is life in a betting heat which has been written off as lukewarm.

Top batsman
Tamim will be all the rage for top-bat honours following his brilliant 125 off 120 balls. He is as short as [4.00] but before you go knees deep on the Bangladesh opener, a word of caution. At the green age of 20 it would be a major surprise if Tamim reproduces something similar.

Indeed, his record in his next innings immediately after a good knock is befitting of a youngster making his way in the international game. He averages 22 in the next dig after a score of 50 or more. He has scored five and four next up after a ton. Perhaps Imrul Kayes, his opening partner, can show why he is so highly rated, too at [6.00].

England's top-bat market is surely a three-horse race between the nudges and nurdlers on this slow wicket. It was no surprise that Paul Collingwood, who top scored, Alastair Cook and Eoin Morgan did the bulk of the runscoring. Morgan is the biggest price of the lot at a value-busting [8.00].

Featured market
Morgan and Pietersen really shouldn't be paired in a runs match bet. It is a mismatch in favour of the Irishman on a wicket which KP will struggle to free his arms. Morgan is [2.12] to dominate.