ODI Betting: Count on Clarke in Adelaide

ODI preview / Andrew Hughes / 11 February 2012 /

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Clarke can lead the way on Sunday

"If India stick with plan A, they are likely to come off second best once again..."

Australia have begun the Commonwealth Bank Series strongly and Andrew Hughes thinks punters should focus on captain Michael Clarke in Sunday's encounter

February 12, Australia v India, Adelaide, Live on Sky Sports 2, 03:00 GMT

Team News
Australia have rested Michael Hussey for this game and Peter Forrest is certain to play in his place, presumably at six in the order. Mitchell Marsh has joined the squad and it will be between him and Daniel Christian for the all-rounder's spot.

If India are sticking to their rotating openers policy, then it's Sachin Tendulkar's turn to have a rest, but given that he hit 48 in the last game, they may opt to drop Virender Sehwag. It seems Ravindra Jadeja is untouchable so Irfan Pathan will be on the bench again, whilst Umesh Yadav may return to the team at Vinay Kumar's expense.

Venue and Conditions
Adelaide has a reputation as a batsman's paradise, but recent ODI history doesn't bear that out. No side has passed 300 in the last ten matches there and the average first innings total is a paltry 224. We can expect a sluggish surface on which batsmen struggle to time the ball and on which cutters and slower balls could be particularly effective. And if trends are your thing, you may like to know that Australia have won all four of their ODIs against India at the Adelaide Oval.

Match Odds
India's approach to this competition has been confusing. Rotating their three experienced openers may give the young middle order a chance to establish themselves but it isn't making the most of their batting strength. And their persistence with spin bowling all-rounder Jadeja at the expense of a fourth seamer suggests a defensive mindset and a failure to adapt to Australian bowling conditions.

By contrast, Australia have gone about their business with a clear plan. Despite losing their main spearhead Brett Lee, they have still aimed to take wickets rather than contain and they will try to repeat the working over they gave the Indian batsmen in last week's Melbourne opener. If India stick with plan A, they are likely to come off second best once again and at the moment, it is hard to argue with odds of [1.61] about another Australian victory.

Top Australian Batsman
It would be expecting too much of the new batsman Forrest to top score, particularly if he bats at six. Ricky Ponting is yet to find his touch in this series and although David Warner was in the runs on Friday, this isn't his kind of pitch. The man to be on in this market is captain Michael Clarke who put together a patient half-century last time and has the game for this slower surface. He's a good bet at [5.0] or better.

Top Indian Batsman
We can't be sure whether Tendulkar, Sehwag or Gautam Gambhir will be rested and neither Rohit Sharma nor Suresh Raina have looked completely comfortable against the Australian bowling, so by a process of elimination we are left with Virat Kohli and M S Dhoni. Kohli is in better form than his captain and just as importantly, he bats higher in the order so he is the selection at [5.0]

Featured Market
There has been a century scored in three of the last ten ODIs held at the Adelaide Oval, but it has only happened once in the last five and when you bear in mind the dominant Australian bowling unit and an end of season-surface on which it's likely to be hard to time the ball, there is some value in backing 'No' in the 'Century Scored?' market at [1.55] or better.

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