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New Zealand v England 4th ODI: Stats show Collingwood needs to bat first to win

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The Hawkeye view - Ed Hawkins previews the crucial 4th ODI between New Zealand and England and tells us why Captain Colly needs to win the toss

THERE are likely to be a nervous look on the faces of the two captains, Daniel Vettori and Paul Collingwood, at the toss in the fourth one-day international between New Zealand and England tonight in Napier.

Both sides have made no secret that they prefer to chase - which is generally viewed as the more strong-hearted option - and it is no surprise that in the three matches so far, all have been won by the side batting second.

Collingwood is likely to be more anxious than Vettori because he and his batsmen have failed spectacularly batting first in the series, being knocked over for 130 and 158 in the first and second matches respectively.

The Durham man admitted that in game one his team failed to pick the pace of the pitch and decipher what a decent score was. So preoccupied were they with trying to do the sums in their heads, they forgot to occupy the crease.

It is nothing new. England's one-day teams have been awful at setting a target down the years and the disease has reoccurred in the next generation like a genetic defect.

As far back as May 1989 they were making a hash of things, losing each of the 11 games they had to bat first in until December 1990.

It took a while for the problem to resurface but the breed of 2000 had it really bad. They were defeated in 10 out 12 games batting first from October 2000 and January 2002, in 11 from 11 between March 2003 and July 2004 and they were defeated in 15 from 18 from July 2005 to January 2007...well, you should have got the picture by now.

No wonder then that when England bat first, their batsmen often have that panicky look in their eyes as they begin to feel the symptoms take hold, they clam up and then have to retreat to the dressing room for a lie down.

Over the last two years England have won only 36 per cent of the matches they have played batting first as opposed to a healthy 50 per cent strike rate when fielding first.

However, as good a punting strategy as those statistics point to, there is evidence that England have found a cure. And Collingwood is the medicine man.

Since he took charge from Michael Vaughan after the World Cup, England have won 57 per cent of their matches batting first and their record fielding first has only dipped slightly to a win rate of 45 per cent.

Indeed, their average first innings score over the last two years is 229 but that is on the rise under Colly's stewardship. Up to 233, although before those two awful efforts against the Kiwis it stood at a markedly improved 268. With the ball they now concede an average of 246, just three runs more than previously.

The stats suggest that England should feel more confident than they are and tonight in Napier there should be no fear about Collingwood choosing to bat first.

McLean Park (ground guide here http://content-uk.cricinfo.com/nzveng/content/ground/58857.html) is not a venue which is going to cause furrowed brows among the batsman who are trying to work out a total. It is a good batting wicket and it's obvious that a score of 280 plus is vital - three of the last five matches have seen scores of 300 or more.

New Zealand should be hopeful of runs, too particularly with three of their most vulnerable batsmen - Jamie How, Ross Taylor and Peter Fulton - all enjoying their time at the crease there recently.

How at [7.0] for top Kiwi bat made 74 there against Bangladesh last year, Taylor who is [6.6] scored 128 against Sri Lanka the previous year and Fulton [3.35] a half-century against Bangladesh and a ton against Sri Lanka in an earlier contest.

Why do you think England have historically struggled batting first?

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