International Cricket Betting: Absence of Smith and motivation could lead to South African capitulation

ODI preview / Ed Hawkins / 14 January 2009 / Leave a Comment

Ed Hawkins tells us about South Africa's tendency to deflate at the end of long tours and how a young, hungry Australian team can give them a right, old hiding.

It is a nice problem to have, but a problem nonetheless: South Africa, so buoyed by being the best Test side in the world, have suddenly noticed that their players' interest has deflated in the one-day arena.

It is understandable. The Test game will forever be the pinnacle and following a historic 2-1 victory over Australia - the first home series loss inflicted on the Baggy Greens for 16 years - South Africa just can't seem to get excited about the coloured clothing thrash and bash. It's now all a bit beneath them.

When the five-match one-day series begins against Australia in Melbourne on Friday we should not expect an abrupt surge of energy from the weary South Africans, some of whom have been on a field of play for 20 days out of the last 30-odd. The market does not expect much, either. Australia are [1.45] with South Africa [4.00].

The form is clear for everyone to see. As soon as South Africa had won a record-breaking Test series against England, they switched off. They lolloped and laboured at The Oval in losing the final Test to an England side inspired by Kevin Pietersen's back slapping but that was only the start of the malaise. They were hammered by England Lions in a warm-up for a one-day series which they would have lost 5-0 had it not been for rain in Cardiff.

It was an incredible turnaround in fortune for both teams and one which must have cost many punters a pretty penny given the tourists dominance earlier in the series. Yet such a performance would have been noted by bettors and that is why the alarm bells will again be ringing.

With the hard work done, South Africa lost a dead rubber Test in Sydney and then hit the town. Actually, given how well they were beaten in that Test they may have hit the town before then. The partying has not stopped it would seem. They were outclassed in two Twenty20 internationals as a sense of déjà vu took hold.

Alas there is no Graeme Smith to force his charges to pull their socks up. His return home to rest an elbow injury for more important battles ahead (Australia visit South Africa at the end of February) is a clue to the 'our work is done attitude'.

It is a shame because South Africa, when not affected by previous glories, are a fine one-day side. Before collapsing against England they had lost only one of their last 16 two-team one-day series. It was a record that suggested a clash against world champions Australia would be a close betting heat.

As it is, the prices look to be fair. Without Smith South Africa have lost four of their last five 50-over matches. That tally increases to six of the last seven if we include the two Twenty20 defeats.

Australia are unlikely to show mercy. Despite a decline in their five-day team, their one-day operators remain more than efficient. Of the last six series they have played, including the World Cup, they have won five. In that World Cup they inflicted two heavy defeats on the Proteas.

So what can South Africa cling to? A VB Series win in Australia in 2001-02 is a start. A small bias in favour of teams batting second in day-night games for game one at the MCG and Australia's record of one victory from the last four under lights at the venue is another step in the right direction. But don't count on the South Africans being that bothered about any of those points.