ODI preview / Ed Hawkins / 25 November 2008 / Leave a comment

After wrapping up the series last time out, India could be forgiven for taking their foot off the gas in the fifth encounter, yet England need to show some spirit and Ed Hawkins feels that they are in with a shout of a consolation victory.

India's dominance in their seven-match one-day series has been so complete that with the Hero Honda Trophy safely pouched after four games, they are talking of resting some of their star men for the remaining contests, starting with game five in Cuttack on Wednesday morning.

Cocky? Yes. Foolish? Probably not. India captain Mahendra Singh Dhoni is now turning his attention on the two Test matches that follow this series and will want to make sure his top performers are in top condition.

"You will see a few changes in the side in the next three matches. Some of the people who have not played in the series so far will play but we still look to win games," he said.

"Three more matches to come and we want to win those games."

Gautam Gambhir, Virender Sehwag and Zaheer Khan are the prime candidates to put their feet up and if two of those three were to miss the same match, India would be suitably weakened for even a demoralised England to stand a better chance than odds of [2.44] suggest. Before taking the [1.66] about India it would be wise to check their XI.

It is a ploy India have used in the past and the chief beneficiaries could be young all-rounder Virat Kohli, the established - and underrated - jack of all trades Irfan Pathan and pace bowler Munaf Patel.
In principle, replacing tired players with fresh faces when a series is won should work. But India's record in dead rubbers when they have already won a series is not as good as one would think for a superior side. Since 2000 they have played 11, winning six and losing five.

Such a record is cancelled out by England's form in dead rubbers when a series is lost. When beaten they let their heads drop, although England did manage to win a meaningless game at the end of an unsuccessful series on their last visit to India in 2006. Still, in the last eight years they have played seven dead matches and lost five of them.

The Barabati Stadium surface should be to the liking of England's bowlers. It offers some assistance and is not the batsman's paradise that they so fear when faced with India's stellar swordsmen. The first innings average on the ground since 2000 is 234 and James Anderson, if he survives the chop, will be particularly encouraged to see that India were bowled out for 189 against The West Indies in the last match on the ground.

India won that game, bowling West Indies out for 169 and that could make punters believe that batting second under lights will be tricky.

There is precious little evidence to support this theory, however. There have been only two day-night games played at the Barabati Stadium, with an even split between the two. Indeed, there is overwhelming data that shows it is actually better to bat second under lights in India. Of the last 16 floodlit games played in the country, 13 have been won by the team batting last.

Markets which could provide value for the game include England's top runscorer and highest opening partnership. Paul Collingwood made an unbeaten 71 when England played on the ground in 2002, winning by 16 runs. This will make the Any Other Batsman price of [4.50] stand out. Likewise England at [2.16] for the highest opening partnership. This mini series stands at 2-2. It is the only contest there has been.