ODI preview / Ed Hawkins / 24 October 2011 /

The difference between these two sides has mostly been the bowling though the continued omission of Ian Bell hasn't helped England's cause. India will probably win again but the best wager lies elsewhere, says Ed Hawkins.

India

India keep finding bowlers who are capable of ripping through England's middle order in this series. Aaron Varun's impressive performance at the Wankhede stadium on Sunday epitomised the differing fortunes of the sides.

Varun's three wickets, at lighting pace, were a boost for India, who had lost Yadav to a finger injury. England were meanwhile juggling their bowling pack with no success. Still, it makes one wonder why Aaron was not given a chance during the summer series in England.

India should remain unchanged for this contest and MS Dhoni has reiterated his desire to claim a whitewash.

England

Since the first one-day international we have mused how England will get Ian Bell into the side and every match they have ignored the classy Warwickshire man. He cut a disconsolate figure by the pool in Mumbai before Sunday's match, having been told he would again miss out.

Still, he must surely get his chance this time. Ravi Bopara and Jon Bairstow are dead men walking and at least one will be for the chop. Bopara has had a dreadful tour and his international career must be in doubt, particularly as he has good experience of these conditions. He averages just 19.

Bairstow has a mark of 15 but has the excuse that he is still learning. Graeme Swann should come back in for a chastened Scott Borthwick. Stuart Meaker will keep his place.

Venue and conditions

The Eden Gardens is the most famous venue in world cricket behind Headquarters and it is a privilege indeed for the England players to get a chance to perform there as, incredibly, there have been only 20-odd ODIs ever played. A sell-out crowd, however, is unlikely because of Diwali and the nature of the series but it should still be a special atmosphere.

We should expect runs with both bowling units beginning to feel the strain after four sapping games and the surface reputedly a good one for batting. In the last 10 ODIs four sides have scored 300 or more and the average first-innings score over the study period is 270.

The dominant bowlers down the years have been those who have tended to put shape on the ball, rather than spinners or outright fast men. Look at the names: Srinath eight wickets in six, Agarkar seven in four, Prasad six in three.

India have six wins from 11 day-nighters at the venue. There is a mini toss bias with six sides having been victorious when batting first.

Match odds

India have served punters well this series but despite their dominance, there doesn't seem much fun to be had by backing them at [1.69]. This is the shortest they have been. England are [2.42].

It is difficult to make a case for the tourists as they look jaded and ready for the plane home. The difference between the two teams has been the bowling. For example, India have four bowlers who have conceded fewer than five runs an over. England have none.
With such a lack of control, it may be wise to back India, if they get to bat first, for 275 or more on the innings runs market.

Top England runscorer

The only two batsmen who have a semblance of form in this series are Jonathan Trott and Craig Kieswetter. And the latter's was only a smattering thanks to a rapid start at the Wankhede. Bell could be the man to follow if he gets a chance.

India

Bad news for England. Gautam Gambhir smashed 150 off 137 balls against Sri Lanka on this ground in 2009. And Virat Kohli, who averages 135 in the series, made 107 off 114 balls.

Recommended bet

India to score 275 or more if they bat first at around [1.90]

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