ODI preview / Ed Hawkins / 25 February 2008 /

The Hawkeye View - Ed Hawkins explains how the stats suggest an early wicket for either side is likely to decide the outcome of this vital Commonwealth Bank Series match

ONE of the golden rules of betting in running on cricket is not to overreact to a single event. It would be folly to lump on the bowling side just because you have seen the first ball swing. Likewise if you raid the piggy bank just because the wicket looks like paradise to bat on following a ball speeding to the boundary.

So if someone said that the outcome of tonight's Sri Lanka versus India Commonwealth Bank Series contest in Hobart could be decided by when the first wicket falls, you would think they were as mischievous as a Tasmanian devil.

Yet in this must-win game for Sri Lanka, who require victories from their next two matches to qualify for the finals against Australia, they could be heavily reliant on taking an early wicket if they bowl first or not losing a quick one were they to bat first.

With Sri Lanka at [2.26] and India at [1.77] on the match outright, a statistical survey of how important opening partnerships are for both teams over the last 20 matches they have batted first in highlight some solid punting strategies.

The most important fact shown up is that were Sri Lanka to bat first and lose a wicket with their score less than ten, they would go on to lose the match. That has happened four times over the study period and they have lost all of them.

That is not good news for Mahela Jayawardene's side with Sanath Jayasuriya, their regular opener, in horrible form averaging just nine and batting without a settled partner.

It gets worse. Even if Sri Lanka were to improve their opening partnership to 30 or fewer, they would still probably lose. On the 11 occasions that has happened, they have still been defeated in seven of them.

It is also important to note their average scores in relation to losing that early wicket. With fewer than ten on the board they have gone on to average 228 and 30 or less the mark stands at 232.

What is fascinating is how Sri Lanka's record improves when their openers score more than 30 and more than 50. They win eight from nine and have a 100 per cent record (four from four) respectively, going on to average 266 and a whopping 301.

Crucially, India's relationship with losing their first wicket and the match result is almost identical to Sri Lanka's.
When their first man has been dismissed with the score less than ten, they have lost four from six with an average score of 255. For a first wicket partnership for 30 or less they have lost eight from 11 (note the average score is 235, lower than the 'ten' figure).

However, just like Sri Lanka, their form transforms itself as soon as the openers score more than 30. Six from nine have been won with a hugely impressive 293 as the average score and, if India's openers put on more than 50, watch out. This has happened six times in their last 20 first innings and they have won all of those matches, averaging a massive 315.

Of course, punters could just prefer a more simple bet on which side will score more runs from their first pair. And the stats suggest that the Betfair market for this event has it about right. Sri Lanka are [2.02] and India [1.71], fair enough considering over our study it is Mahendra Singh's Dhoni team who average nearly 11 runs more.

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