England v New Zealand Betting: Take what you've learned so far in the series, rip it up and throw it away!

ODI preview / Ed Hawkins / 24 June 2008 / Leave a Comment

The Hawkeye View - Ed Hawkins tells us why the wickets at Bristol, Durham and Edgbaston bear no resemblance to the remaining ones in the Series at Lord's and The Oval so as punters we need to start from scratch. Oh, and New Zealand are a value bet to win the Series.

Write down on a piece of paper something you have learnt so far about the one-day international series between England and New Zealand. If you have been paying attention, it is likely that you will jot this: bowlers have dominated in five of six innings with conditions for batting difficult.

Done that? Good. Now throw it away because what has gone before is completely irrelevant for what could happen at The Oval and Lord's, where the series could be decided (don't forget this could be a draw after the Edgbaston shambles).

The venues for the last two matches are wholly different from the three that we have seen insofar as that historically they are much better to bat on. That means that although we can still marvel at the bowling of Tim Southee in conditions which he would want to carry round with him last time out at Bristol, Grant Elliott giving England's batsmen wobbly knees with his dobbers at Edgbaston or Paul Collingwood doing likewise at the Riverside, we should factor those performances into our betting plans at our peril.

Simply, Elliott and Collingwood, and to a lesser extent Southee because he can at least send them down at a decent lick, could be taken for upwards of nine an over on good batting surfaces, particularly at the notoriously flat Oval, where game four takes place on Wednesday with England [1.64] and the Kiwis [2.22].

Batsmen dominate there in comparison to the three grounds we have already seen. The first innings average score in the last ten at SE11 is 256, which is higher than Bristol (247), Edgbaston (206), and the Riverside (226). Also, the average run rate over all the matches is 5.2, which again is superior with Bristol and the Riverside just scraping above the five an over mark.

Runs have not flowed as much recently as at their London neighbour, but we know that the pitch at Headquarters is dreamy to bat on and although scores have been a little on the low side in the last few years, it was only 2004 that England and West Indies shared 571 runs and their were two memorable high scoring contests between the hosts and India the previous summer.

But first, let's concentrate on matters in Kennington. There have been an astonishing five scores of more than 300 in the last ten matches on the ground and innings runscorer bettors will be interested to hear that the openers have been the ones doing the damage.
They have seen off the new ball and top scored in seven of the last 20 innings which illustrates the point perfectly how bowlers who rely on seam or swing movement (basically exactly the type of bowler we have watched be profitable so far) struggle.
If at this juncture you are beginning to feel that England may not get over the line in this series, then you might be right. It is a surprise to see the score tied at 1-1 given that conditions have been perfect for Paul Collingwood's men. Gosh, they could even be 2-1 down.

Collingwood is going to have to find a way to stop New Zealand's gun players - Brendon McCullum, Ross Taylor and Scott Styris - from freescoring on such a placid surface. He may not manage it, which would be true to form given England have a poor record on such wickets.

Remember the match in Napier in March when they could not win the match having posted 340? Or even more pertinently when they whacked 316 against India batting first at, you guessed it, The Oval in 2007 and still lost.

So get another piece of paper out. And make a note of New Zealand's odds of [4.7] to win the series.