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England v New Zealand Betting: Forget being innovative and flashy, it's patience and discipline that's needed at Edgbaston

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The Hawkeye View - Ed Hawkins warns England backers about their failure to work out what's a good first innings total and tells us why posting just over 200 runs may well be enough to win the 2nd ODI at Edgbaston

WITH 'innovation' the buzz word of the cricket week following Kevin Pietersen's theatrics at Chester-le-Street, England will do well to keep their aspirations in check for the second one-day international against New Zealand at Edgbaston, which starts tomorrow.

Indeed given their record in Birmingham and the negative vibes emanating from the New Zealand camp, just turning up may be enough. They have won seven from their last 11 at the ground, a tremendous record considering England have hardly been the most reliable of one-day units down the years.

Paul Collingwood's men are [1.47] to take a 2-0 lead with New Zealand, their price rising as their confidence levels fall, are [3.10].

England are buoyant currently. And there lies the fear for backers. Too often in the past this England team have got ahead of themselves in the one-day arena. Most recently against New Zealand at the start of the year when they developed a cocky swagger after dominating the Twenty20 internationals only to fall flat on their face in the following one-day series.

Back then England thought they were special. They probably think that again thanks to posting 300 at the Riverside on Sunday and Pietersen showing flashes of a genius with his left-handed six-hitting ability.

That was all very clever. But if they, or Pietersen, tries something similar at Edgbaston they could come unstuck. What is required there is a solid and professional job. Nothing flashy, nothing headline grabbing, nothing that demands the attention of the ICC rules committee.
With the first-innings average score at the venue over the last ten years standing at just 206, this could be a war of attrition. In other words, exactly the sort of game England have lost in the past.

One of their failings as a limited-overs team has been their inability to work out what a good score is when batting first. Too often they have thought they have needed 300, pressed the accelerator button too early and come up woefully short. Too often they have reckoned that 220 would do it, only to see the opposition chase down their effort with ease.

The first of those theories is more pertinent for this match. Neither side would be advised to go out to bat dreaming of a score of 300. Slow and steady will win this race.

Proof of that is in the list of chases at Edgbaston. Only two sides have successfully chased more than 250 on the last nine occasions (a sequence stretching back to the 1990s) when such a target has been set. And only four teams have achieved a target of 200 plus over the last 13.
With that in mind, New Zealand could be a bit of value. With batsmen of the calibre of Brendon McCullum and Ross Taylor in their top order and Daniel Vettori further down, surely they should be capable of getting a score above 200 and then really piling the pressure on the hosts?

The worry is that New Zealand are beginning to look a beaten side before they take to the park. They have been on the receiving end of four consecutive beatings now and when Vettori said a loss in Edgbaston would be hard to come back from, it was defeatism in the extreme. There are still three games after this one, Dan.

Another concern is that for all the statistics suggesting not much above 250 could be enough, it is England who have bucked that trend. Remember when they chassed 260 against Australia in the ICC Champions Trophy in 2004?

Last 20 chases at Edgbaston

Target Chased
263 No
274 No
188 Yes
199 Yes
300 No
94 Yes
95 Yes
201 Yes
260 Yes
155 Yes
279 No
282 No
174 Yes
278 Yes
225 No
216 Yes
293 No
245 No
233 No
288 No

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