ODI preview / Ed Hawkins / 02 September 2008 / Leave a comment

Ed Hawkins casts his Hawkeyes over the stats to advise us how to trade the 5th ODI as the show moves to Cardiff.

One of the features of the five-match one-day series between England and South Africa has been the utter dominance of the home team. With one match to play in Cardiff tomorrow, England have the opportunity of a 5-0 whitewash and, more importantly, rising to No. 2 in the world rankings.

It is a resurgence that will have surprised many punters, particularly considering pre-series historic form - England had folded feebly to New Zealand in their last two series and South Africa were unbeaten in nine matches. What has also been astounding, however, is the ease with which England have won.

This will also have frustrated traders. In only one of the four matches so far have there been the market ups and downs, flip flops and overreactions which make one-day internationals such a thrilling and potentially profitable medium to trade in-running.

Game one at Headingley - a narrow 20-run win for England - suggested we were in for a tight series but the debacle at Trent Bridge followed when England's price was a tiny silhouette on the horizon which got harder and harder to see as the match progressed. At The Oval, South Africa were in the game for a ten-over spell during England's target-setting in the first innings and at Lord's on Sunday, few were prepared to put faith in South Africa with Duckworth-Lewis always liable to hurt them.

With the market suggesting another easy win in Wales for the 'home side', we might have to work harder to find an edge in-running. So we have had a look at when England have lost their wickets in this series to try to find a margin to take advantage of.

Unfortunately, it reveals only a small one because as discussed earlier England's wobbles have not lasted for long. We must not expect huge swings. Think of your in-running strategy like a defence orientated boxer: not throwing big shots and instead ducking and weaving, offering the odd jab.

England's ten-wicket victory at Trent Bridge has been discounted from our study (in no small part because they didn't lose any wickets) as it was such a freak occurrence in the world game, not just England versus South Africa contests.

However, in the three other contests England have on average lost a wicket every eight overs. Now, to lay England at such spells over the course of their innings would be too crude a method to guarantee profit but it may not to be folly to do so at certain junctures. Read on.

Instead there is a clear trading opportunity thrown up by the relationship between the loss of their first wicket and their second. It happens quickly, so fastest finger first gets the value. At Headingley and The Oval they were going along nicely with a big fat zero under their score after 19.2 and 15.2 overs respectively. A ball later in both cases they were a wicket down. At Lord's they lost a wicket after 2.2 overs but what is interesting is that the average number of overs bowled until the loss of their next wicket is just four.

Remembering that over the series England have lost a wicket every eight overs, it is pertinent to look how quickly the first three go down. On average their first three wickets have fallen at 7.4 over intervals. This coupled with the fact that three times they have lost wickets from the 40th over onwards suggest if we are going to lay England, then do it early.

If you prefer to back, then do so if England have lost wickets No. 1 and 2 quickly. Reckoning that their strong middle-order - Andrew Flintoff at No. 5 is the top runscorer in the series lest we forget - should come to the fore is sensible.

Flintoff is [7.00] to be top bat for England in Cardiff. He has never played a List A match there, which could be a bonus. Of his fellow top six, only Kevin Pietersen (79) and Ian Bell (32) have decent records at the venue.