Australia v South Africa 3rd ODI: Catch the South Africa value while you can

ODI preview / Ed Hawkins / 20 January 2009 / Leave a Comment

Ed "The Hawkeye" Hawkins talks us through the conditions, stats and betting ahead of the 3rd ODI between Australia and South Africa. The tourists are the pre-match betting value but losing the toss could change all that.

The CB Series between Australia and South Africa has been much like Dame Edna trying to wear Spandex - a very tight squeeze. Tied at one game apiece, the first two matches have been won by margins of three wickets (with three balls remaining) and five runs. There is evidence to suggest that ahead of game three under the lights at the SCG on Friday, both teams will continue to strain for the perfect fit.

Historically Australia and South Africa are fine one-day units. Both have found themselves previously level at 1-1 in a two team series and usually, they revel in such claustrophobic scenarios.
The last five times Australia have been level-pegged by this scoreline they have won three of the next five matches and gone on to win the series in four of them. South Africa's record is more impressive. Four times out of five they have won the next game and over the study period they have lost only one series, winning three and drawing the other.

So a bit like Dame Edna trying to get into that tight suit, something will have to give. On the face of it such statistics may do little to help us discover an edge when perusing the prices. Australia are [1.55] and South Africa [2.78]. But of course one could argue that the respective records of the two sides in such a situation makes the touring side the value at odds-against.

The same could be said for the series market with South Africa even bigger at [3.20]. Indeed, one does not need to trawl through historic series to discover how the sides fare when the score is 1-1 to reckon that on this market South Africa have to be the value.

The present usurps the past in such a situation and the here and now tells us that this is an evenly contested series. With three to play, the two teams look well-matched.
Confidence in backing South Africa should increase when one discovers that for the next game at the SCG, it could be a case of win the toss win the game.

With the match under lights there is a heavy bias in favour of the side batting first in such matches. Eight of the last 10 have gone to the team who has been able to make use of a swinging white ball as the dew falls. With the coin flip 50-50 South Africa should be skinnier.

It can be a dangerous game to religiously back the outfit batting first in day-night matches and the sage advice is to only do so when form on the ground in question suggests there is a trend. Not all venues help the bowling side under lights but Sydney certainly seems to be one of them.

Try to cast your mind back to early 2006 when Liam Plunkett castled Adam Gilchrist in the CB Series and England were able to come out of the shadows of a horrid tour and dance like fire flies under Sydney's beam.

We can use this knowledge to make a profit on the top runscorer markets, too. In day-night matches it is interesting to spot that the runs in the first innings of the match have been spread around.

Over the last 10 games at the SCG, batsmen from numbers one to six have scored the runs with no position dominating. Nos 1 and 2 have each top-scored twice, likewise Nos 4 and 5.
But in the second innings, Nos 3 and 4 have taken honours six times between them. And no batsman below the number five slot has come close.

This can be put down to the difficulty of batting under these particular lights. Clearly the batsmen who have been third and fourth to the wicket have arrived just in the nick of time, in terms of getting bedded in before the sun goes down, the lights come on and the bend begins.

It is something to bear in mind when playing the markets and is not a bad way of removing the unpleasant mental image of Edna in her tights. Apologies for that.