ODI preview / Ed Hawkins / 19 October 2011 /

Ed Hawkins previews the third one-day international at Mohali on Thursday and applies betting rule No 1

England v India
Start: 09.00GMT
TV: live on the UK on Sky Sports
Prices: India [1.69], England [2.42]

India
India are unchanged following their two crushing victories in Hyderabad and Delhi. They have also stuck with the same squad for the rest of the series, meaning we will not see a return to the side for Sachin Tendulkar or Virender Sehwag.

Robin Uthappa and Yusuf Pathan have been called into the Twenty20 squad. It might not have been a bad idea to pick Uthappa to replace one of Parthiv Patel or Ajinkya Rahane, the misfiring openers.

England
Problems. England kept faith with the team that was humbled in the first one-day international but after successive humiliations, it is surely time for a tweak.

It is worth finding room for Ian Bell, who was unfortunate to be left out in the first place. There are many candidates who could make way: Jonny Bairstow, Jonathan Trott, Ravi Bopara, Craig Kieswetter (with Bairtsow taking the gloves). Take your pick. Bell's shot making should be useful on a pitch which can aid strokemakers.

With the ball, Samit Patel and Steven Finn look vulnerable. Patel, who went for 17 runs off two overs on Monday, was not trusted by Alastair Cook and instead turned to part-timer Kevin Pietersen.

Finn, although looking impressive with some 90mph deliveries, lacks control. There was a stage during India's innings when Cook asked him to bowl to a six-three offside field and the paceman could not manage it.

Stuart Meaker, the Surrey paceman, could benefit. Chris Woakes, the Warwickshire allrounder, has returned home injured and will be replaced by Graham Onions.

Venue and conditions
Mohali offers hope for England. It is a wicket which has a reputation for helping the pace bowlers, rather than the spinners and that should offer welcome relief.

Unlike the Feroz Shah Kotla, which had been dominated by spin, of the top ten wicket-takers in the last ten years eight of them are pacers. Makhaya Ntini is one of them, having taken five wickets when Pakistan were blown away by speed for 89 in 2006.

The average first-innings score is the last ten ODIs is a very healthy 273. During that period three sides have scored 300 or more.

However, the most important statistic is the one which involves the record of sides batting second under lights at the venue. Only five from 16 have won chasing.

Match odds
In our preview for the last match we said that we could not consider backing England at anything south of [2.4]. So it is a relief that they have hit [2.42] for this contest.

They are the bet for two reasons, one more scientific than the other. The record of sides batting second under lights makes this a toss game and the skew is strong enough to suggest the visitors should be shorter.

Secondly, England are unlikely to perform as poorly again. Cook is incorrect to say that there is no reason his team can't do well in India - an inability to manoeuvre the spinners is a major flaw - but they are a young, bright squad who should not be cowed by what has happened so far.

Expect a better effort from England in conditions which are more likely to suit. A trade could well be the best option as we would only need them to achieve favourite status for decent profits.

With India as skinny as [1.69] it would be a foolish error to ignore the statistics and side with the value. This really is betting basics, folks.

Top India runscorer
Gautam Gambhir and Virat Kohli, the heroes of their Delhi crowd, are vying for favouritism. Gambhir is the [4.4] jolly while Kohli, the unbeaten centurion, is [4.5]. The pair are [2.3] and [2.5] respectively for a 50.

Top England runscorer
After finding themselves nought for two in Delhi, England will hope for contributions from their openers. Cook is [4.2] favourite but Kieswetter does not enjoy the same faith, being priced at [5.3]. If Bell plays you will have to back him under Any Other at [4.0]. This also includes Bopara.

Recommended Bet
England to win 3rd ODI at [2.42]

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