2nd ODI Betting: South Africa v England

ODI preview / Ed Hawkins / 21 November 2009 / Leave a Comment

Graeme Smith has a good recent record at Centurion

After the rain in Jo'burg, South Africa and England try again at Centurion on Sunday. The pitch should suit England's batsmen, but it spells trouble for their bowlers. Ed Hawkins uncovers the best wagers

Team news
The washout in Jo'burg has given England's walking wounded (Alastair Cook, Paul Collingwood and James Anderson) extra rest for niggles but only a flood of Biblical proportions could give Stuart Broad and Graeme Swann the time they need. They are out of Sunday's (08.00GMT) second one-day international in Centurion.

Also likely to miss out is Joe Denly, who has had a disappointing start to his England career. His opening slot is to be taken by Jonathan Trott, giving England their sixth No1-2 combination in the last 12 months.

South Africa are hoping paceman Wayne Parnell, who has an ankle injury, will be fit. Hashim Amla, the opener, is also on the comeback trail.

Pitch conditions
Unlike The Wanderers, Centurion's reputation for runs recently is justified. In the last 10 ODIs, four sides have passed 300 or more batting first, giving the ground a healthy average first dig total of 246. It is a stat which lends itself to backing 250 or more for the side batting first if they lose an early wicket.

Indeed, England were one of those side to pass three figures. The 323 they posted in the Champions League Trophy in September gave them a fifth consecutive victory over South Africa.

With the weather forecast set fair, it would be reasonable to expect the captain who wins the toss to bat first. However, the stats suggest that would be folly. Of the last 23 matches, eight have been won by the side batting first.

Match odds
South Africa, who are [1.43], have won nine of their last 10 ODIs at Centurion, a perfect platform to end their horror run against England, [3.25]. The five successive defeats they have suffered against them is one of the more peculiar trends in sport. How can a side rated so highly lose consistently against one which has almost been a laughing stock?

In fairness, there are mitigating circumstances. Four of those defeats came when South Africa were tired and emotional following a Test series win in England two summers ago. But the defeat at Centurion will worry the hosts.

England appear to be a side who thrive when playing on flat surfaces, allowing their batsmen to hit through the line with freedom. Certainly they have a batting line-up which should trouble the South Africa attack.

The edge is with South Africa, however, thanks to England's problems with the ball. Without Broad and Swann, much will depend on Sajid Mahmood and Adil Rashid finding some confidence.

Top batsmen
With a weakened bowling attack and on a good batting surface, England's bowling problems are highlighted by the following averages for the home batsmen on this ground: 65 Graeme Smith, 46 Jacques Kallis, 53 AB de Villiers, 59 JP Duminy.

It makes it difficult to decide which of those men to get with on the South Africa top bat market. Instead of coming over all kid in a sweet shop, Smith should probably get the nod at [4.20]. He has top-scored at Centurion three times in the last 10. JP Duminy has managed the feat twice.

For England, Eoin Morgan and Collingwood, who is set to become England's most capped ODI player with 170 games, are the value. Morgan made 67 in that match at Centurion while Collingwood notched 82. The pair are [6.60] and [4.60] (under Any Other Batsman) respectively.

Here's an odd stat: only one opening batsman has top-scored in the first innings of the last 10 matches on the ground.

Featured market
In the last five matches at Centurion there have been five centuries scored. The market makes it [1.81] for a sixth in six on Sunday.