1st ODI Betting: South Africa v England

ODI preview / Ed Hawkins / 19 November 2009 / Leave a Comment

Jacques Kallis has strong top-bat credentials

England aim for a sixth-straight 50-overs victory over South Africa in Jo'burg on Friday. It is a stat which should shame the hosts in to playing out of their skins. Ed Hawkins works out whether they can end a horror run

Team news
England's customary post-Ashes victory injury crisis has hit ahead of the first one-day international against South Africa on Friday (12.30GMT). Stuart Broad (shoulder), Graeme Swann (side strain) are out while Alastair Cook, Paul Collingwood and James Anderson have niggles.

James Tredwell, the Kent spinner, has been called up as cover for Swann. Adil Rashid would feel aggrieved if he did not come into the XI for the day-night contest. But England's problems do not really lie in the spin department. Their pacemen are yet to fire. Sajid Mahmood and Tim Bresnan have disappointed so much that Liam Plunkett has been another late call up.

At least Kevin Pietersen is back. He forms a strong-looking middle order with fellow South African-born Jonathan Trott. Along with Eoin Morgan (born in Ireland), 'England' have runs in them.

South Africa are without young pacer Wayne Parnell, who has an ankle injury. There are no spaces for veterans Herschelle Gibbs or Makhaya Ntini with Ryan McLaren, the former Kent allrounder, and Charl Langevedlt getting a chance.

Pitch conditions
Thanks to the record-breaking chase of 434 by South Africa against Australia in 2006, The Wanderers will forever have a reputation as a batting paradise. The reality does not quite live up to the legend, however.

The average first-innings score in the last 10 day-nighters is just 219 - four sides have failed to even pass the 200 mark. That average could be as low as it is because the Champions Trophy was played in September when the pitches were juicier than usual and it goes a long way to explaining why five of the last six floodlit affairs have been won by the side batting second.

It would be fair to reckon there might be more runs around in November but given this is the first day-night match played at this ground in the 11th month then we can't be sure.
Unfortunately there is rain around, too which only adds to the pessimism regarding a run fest. Perhaps laying 250 or 275 runs or more in the first-innings could be smart.

Match odds
It is perhaps hard to believe that England, who are as big as [3.25] for first blood in this five-match series, have won the last five meetings between the sides. South Africa, who are [1.43], surely cannot be so sloppy for a sixth time running.

Undoubtedly England's injury list is a boost for Smith's side and it is difficult to see them failing to make it five wins from the last six at The Wanderers. Don't forget that before their implosion at the Champions Trophy, they were rated the No 1 side in the world. England currently languish in sixth.

What will be key for England is breaking early the opening partnership of Smith and Jacques Kallis. If Mahmood and co are going around the park in the first 15 overs like they did in the last Twenty20, the hosts are pretty much home and hosed.

Top batsmen
There is a strong trend for opening batsmen dominating in Jo'burg (another reason why England need early breakthroughs). Six times in the last 10 innings has an opener top scored.

Smith and Kallis, who has three half-centuries in his last three matches on this surface, are likely to go off no better than [4.00]. Bear in mind the potential for a cheeky back and lay if both can make it to 20-odd.

England, for the first time in recent memory, have a plethora of top-bat options. A case could be made for Andrew Strauss (averaging 127 on tour), Morgan (blistering form against the South Africans) and homeboys Trott and KP showing the locals what they're missing. Strauss, at [3.80] or bigger, is the pick.

Featured market
Since the epic encounter between South Africa and Australia three years ago (10 matches) there has been only one century scored. That makes the [1.67] about the trend continuing look generous.