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South Africa v England Test Match Betting: Day Five

Live Test Match Blogging RSS / / 19 December 2009 /

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Paul Harris will have a huge role to play if South Africa are to bowl England out on the final day

Paul Harris will have a huge role to play if South Africa are to bowl England out on the final day

An England win now looks like being out of the equation but they can still salvage a draw from this game. To do so they will have to bat resiliently whilst facing plenty of overs from spinner Paul Harris on a fifth-day wicket. Ed Hawkins talks us through it all. Email him at hawkeyeview@hotmail.co.uk


MATCH DRAWN
A thrilling end to a day which for so long was tedious. England's collapse was dramatic but, sadly, not quite dramatic enough to force a result in a game inviolving two sides who are going to struggle to take 20 wickets in the next three Tests. England may well look back on Ian Bell's horror show and think of it as a blessing. They now have a scapegoat to find an extra bowler. One from Ryan Sidebottom, Luke Wright and Liam Plunkett. South Africa, no doubt, will feel hard done by. But the joke's on them. They batted on too long, setting a ridiculous target and not giving themselves enough overs. They should be 1-0 up. On such errors are series won and lost. See you on Boxing Day.

WICKET Eng 218-9
Swann lbw b Morkel . England use up a referral but it can't save Swann. Heart-thumping drama. SA have 19 balls to get either Paul Collingwood or Graham Onions out to win the Test. SA [2.22], the draw [1.80]

15.49 Eng 214-8
What would South Africa give for another five or so overs tonight? Everything. So why did they bat on so long? But it is the same the world over, international captains always bat too long. They never learn.


15.40 Eng 211-8
England have lost four for four in 43 balls. They were 169-3 at tea. Paul Harris has six men around the bat. De Wet has five slips. England's nerves are clanging like Christmas bells. Seven overs left.


WICKET 14.36 Eng 209-8
S Broad c Boucher b Harris 0. Oh my. Surely England cannot go under here? Broad gone now. He asked for a review out of pure desperation. South Africa [3.00] and the draw [1.38]. Tremendous drama, folks.


15.33 Eng 209-7
There is little doubt England will not survive but the Test will now go to the wire. Stuart Broad joins Collingwood with only Graeme Swann and Graham Onions to come. Wouldn't it be lovely if they got a couple in one over?


WICKET 15.30 Eng 208-7
M Prior c Boucher b De Wet 0. Hang about. Hang about. South Africa [6.20], the draw [1.17]. A virtual flurry of wickets at Centurion and England appear to be rushing to their panic stations. They were coasting but the kid de Wet, who has four, has bowled with pace and no little accuracy. Bless him for making this last half hour watchable. The final eight overs are nor unmissable.


WICKET 15.15 Eng 207-6
I Bell c Boucher b De Wet 2. South Africa in with a squeak? A barely audible one. There are a potential 10 overs left tonight. Matt Prior replaces Bell, who cuts a sorry figure. It is incredible the guy is even on the tour and I wouldn't waste my breath saying that that this is surely his last chance. He is the cockroach of international batsmen.


WICKET 14.57 Eng 205-5
J Trott c AB de Villiers b De Wet 69. South Africa [21.00], the draw [1.04]. The new ball works for SA. It means we'll be here for a bit longer, just as it looked as though the hosts were preparing to admit failure in their victory quest.


14.41 Eng 195-4
New ball due in three overs. Meanwhile, let's continue our discussion about where the teams go from here. We'll start with the hosts, who would appear to have an easier task of fitting five bowlers in at Durban. Given Kallis has turned his arm over, one would assume that he will be fit for a full stint, providing he stays off the turkey. Job done. But who makes way for Dale Steyn, Friedel de Wet or Makhaya Ntini? I'd favour de Wet. I think SA need a workhouse, someone who will run in all day and be capable of hitting a nagging line and length. That's Ntini for my money.


14.22 Eng 187-4
With this Test almost decided, it is time for us to start looking ahead to the next one, which starts on Boxing Day in Durban. What have we learnt? Well, chiefly that both sides need to work out how to get five bowlers into their XIs because at this rate, the prospect of one of them taking 20 wickets looks slim.


13.59 Eng 182-4
Collingwood is having a far from dull time. He has survived a leg before referral, edged just short of slip and almost been bowled by a grubber. All in the space of three balls. That is probably all the excitement remaining in this game condensed. Meanwhile there's a shot of KP in the dressing room looking furious. I mentioned the other day that I had to interview him a couple of months back. I asked him what was the last book he read. "Ross Kemp on gangs ... or something". Now I wasn't expecting him to say "Ibsen on plays ... or something" but it was still a pretty depressing answer.


13.40 Eng 172-4
That really was remarkable. Pietersen just set off, Trott stayed in his crease and KP just kept going, all the way to the pavilion. South Africa need another one sharpish. Then I'll put my carrot down. Paul Collingwood in.


13.38 Eng 172-4
K Pietersen run out 81. South Africa [12.50], the draw [1.07], England [46.00].


13.37 Eng 172-3
Unfortunately the players have come out again after tea. In the interim I've been munching on a carrot, trying to fashion it with my teeth into a sharp point so I poke myself in the eye. Oh woe. We need something remarkable.


TEA 13.11 Eng 169-3
"England will be the happier of the two dressing rooms, says Sirloin. Well, knock me down with a soppy sponge Botham. Really? Getting grouchy now. South Africa going through the motions, England likewise. Nasser Hussain darkens the mood with this: "all four results still possible". Mmmm, quite. The draw is [1.09].


13.06 Eng 166-3
We can call it off at the start of the last hour so long as SA have bowled 75 overs. England need close to 5.5 an over now so just as Messrs Hussain and Botham were talking them up they slowed down. The pair are right so suggest England give it a go after tea, if only to panic the hosts. Won't happen, though.


12.53 Eng 158-3
Desperate times, desperate measures. South Africa bring on Jacques Kallis for a go. Kallis is supposed to be injured with a rib problem. Not sure how wise that is when there are four Tests left in the series and it has been patently obvious they need him fit as an allrounder. Jonathan Trott has 50.


12.48 Eng 155-3
England's price comes down to [25.00] as Nasser Hussain and Sirloin of Beef, the England chief cheerleader, try to convince themselves that their side could win the game. I don't buy it. Not least because they need five an over but Hussain and Sirloin seem to have forgotten that England are a pretty negative outfit. Remember the Caribbean? The pair like the word "twicthy" at the moment as they describe South Africa's mental weakness but really, the phrase 'people in glass houses shouldn't throw stones' somes to mind.


12.35 Eng 140-3
About 40 minutes until tea. South Africa need a minimum of two wickets in that time otherwise this is a stone cold stalemate. Can we have a pop at them for batting on too long? I think so. No side has ever chased more than 300 in South Africa so for the life of me I can't understand why Graeme Smith wanted another 64 runs on top. Think of the overs and time he could have saved if he'd gone for a target of 320. Oh well, it will probably be immaterial because at this rate we should get it called off quite early.


12.13 Eng 123-3
A rare frisson of excitement in the form of a bat-boot and lbw appeal combo. Neither was out. Drinks are coming onto the field. South Africa need something strong. So do I in fact. It's not the greatest final day witnessed. Not by a long chalk. We need two quick wickets to get the mercury rising but I don't think we're going to get them.

12.01 Eng 121-3
This innings is going to form. By that I mean in the previous three innings, a wicket has fallen, on average, every 13 overs. We have had 45 overs so far. But it shows that South Africa were relying on pitch deterioration to win the game. According to that stat, only seven wickets should fall in 90 overs.


11.49 Eng 111-3
50 for Pietersen. Galling for SA this. The two batsmen they made and moulded are denying them victory. They call it sod's law. England's price, by the way, has shortened alarmingly from [280.00] after the last wicket to just [30.00]. They need just under five an over with 54 overs left.


11.33 SA 94-3
I was just about to write that South Africa do not look like taking a wicket. And then Friedel de Wet hit KP plumb in front only for the umpire to call no ball. That must be demoralising for South Africa. They have created nothing while this pair have been at the wicket. It is frustrating for us, too because we need wickets to make it an interesting betting heat.


11.18 Eng 81-3
The start of the penultimate session. If England lose no more than two wickets they will reckon the game is as good as saved. For South Africa to enjoy favourite status again, two quick wickets are required. The draw price is currently going through the floor at [1.37]. South Africa are [3.65].


LUNCH 10.33 Eng 73-3
That's lunch and, predictably, it's a war of attrition. Both sides have plenty of work to do if they are to get their desired result. England may well be the happier of the two, though. It is unlikely they have seen anything which makes them think they cannot survive the whole day. South Africa, disappointingly, have created zero chances since Trott and KP came together. The draw is [1.40] and South Africa are [3.45]


10.11 Eng 59-3
South Africa have turned to JP Duminy as lunch approaches. Given that one of their wickets was James Anderson, South Africa may be disappointed with only two dismissals in a session. Indeed, the more time they get to bowl at Paul Collingwood the better. Unsurprisingly, confidence in their victory chance has dipped. The draw is [1.54].


10.02 Eng 54-3
Trott has seven runs from 51 balls. Nothing wrong with nthat in my opinion. A lot of pundits go on about batsmen "playing their natural game". Well, that's the last thing England need because rarely does a side last 90 overs if they play normally. If the ball is outside off, what's the point of trying to squirt it through for a two or bludgeon it for four when the risk of an edge increases?


09.41 Eng 34-3
To satisfy Rohit's inquisitive mind, let's deal with his other queries.
"Will the weather hold up for a full days play?"
There is a chance of a thunderstorm at around 17.00 SA time according to the weather boffins. This was the case yesterday, though and it didn't materialise. Not something to tie your briefs in knots over
"Can SA bowl out England?"
England are rather good in this situation, which is damning them with faint praise. Brilliant at mediocrity. Before Cook's dismissal by gut feeling was that England would hang on. And I can't change on the back of one wicket. The key will be Kevin Pietersen and Paul Collingwood, their best players of spin, taking on danger man Paul Harris for large chunks of time. Oh, and England need to keep Ian Bell in the pavilion for as long as possible.
What's your take on the pitch as you see it?
The uneven bounce hasn't really got much worse from the second day. It is not going to suddenly break up and become a minefield.


09.27 Eng 28-3
I'm never one to blow my own trumpet but I do believe that was a Nostradamus moment. Ten minutes after saying a wicket was on its way, we got one. Cook fails again. How many more chances is this bloke going to get? Some people by comedy DVDs for Christmas. Me? I like to read articles suggesting Cook is a future England captain. Kevin Pietersen has joined his fellow South African Trott at the crease.


WICKET 09.25 Eng 27-3
A Cook c Smith b Harris 12. South Africa [1.87, draw [2.12], England [280.00]


09.15 Eng 26-2
Rohit Ramani has been in touch via the wonder that is email. He wants answers. "Will the weather hold up for a full day's play? Can SA bowl out England? What's your take on the pitch as you see it? A crucial time to cover the draw or just ride the result?" It's a bit like Question Time eh? Well, let's deal with the last question which is the most important one. I don't believe this is a day to have one bet and then leave it to sit back to watch the action unfold. As I posted earlier, there is overreaction when a wicket falls. Having hit [2.10] after Anderson's dismissal, it is now as short as [1.80]. To get involved at this very minute, though we need to try to guess when a wicket is going to fall. The other side of the coin if you will. South Africa are [2.22] and that is worth a nibble because, again, there will be an overreaction. Alastair Cook and Jonathan Trott are looking vulnerable. Indeed, Trott is virtually strokeless.


09.00 Eng 20-2
In the last five Tests at Centurion, a wicket falls, on average, every four overs in the final innings. When Anderson went this morning, it was in the eighth over perfectly repeating the trend. David Lloyd on commentary has just mentioned something about a bit of rain later on in the day. let's not panic, though. Often such claims are unsubstantiated. I'll get out my weather radar to check. Jonathan Trott is the new batsman, by the way.


08.48 Eng 17-2
So South Africa have gone odds on at [1.95] for victory in this Test after strangling James Anderson down the leg side. That's a bit of an overeaction isn't it? Trading a situation like this is not rocket science, folks. We need to go against the tide when a wicket falls. A 15-20-minute wicketless spell now, which is more than possible with the top order in operation, would allow those who have laid South Africa or backed the draw, to take a few points of profit. Such a ploy gets harder as the match progresses (presuming wickets have fallen reasonably regularly) but it's a starter for ten.


WICKET 08.39 Eng 16-2
J Anderson c Boucher b De Wet 10. South Africa [2.00], the draw [2.00], England [75.00]


08.31 Eng 11-1
We are underway. Just harking back to that Cardiff Test, Paul Collingwood was the hero - another word which will get overused if England survive - and he will be the key wicket for South Africa today. They must concentrate on Alastair Cook and James Anderson first, however. The draw price will go through the floor of the latter can hang on for 20 minutes or so.


08.23 Eng 11-1
Spirit, guts, balls, chutzpah. England need all of those and any other similies that you can think of to save the first Test against South Africa. They have nine wickets left and 90 overs to survive. SImple really when you consider that against Australia in the summer at Cardiff, they batted for 98 overs having started the final day two down. Here are the prices: South Africa [1.16], the draw [1.90], England [55.00]

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